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The Most Believable Investment Advice I’ve Seen in a Long Time

December 19th, 2008 · 2 Comments · Commodities, Economics, Financial, Stock Market

Gary Shilling is both an economist and investment advisor. He was right in 13 out of 13 predictions last January! This is amazing considering how just levitra drugs about everyone was wrong both in outlook and in detailed investment advice. Here are his January 2008 predictions:

Here’s Gary levitra brand name Shilling on what he sees ahead. It is not pleasant, but Cialis Jelly Cheap Female Viagra realistic.

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It behooves those who want to protect their wealth to consider Buy Cialis carefully what he has to say. Here’s another tadalafil video with his more buy kamagra detailed investment buy cytotec generic outlook for the coming year. What he says has the ring of deep understanding.

Note he expects corporate earnings to be half of the current street estimate. This is not an investment environment that produces rising stock prices. Listen and pay attention.

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Here’s cheap propecia more insight into why the outlooks buy generic levitra is so dark — the shift of consumers from outspending income to savings, a shift driven by

the clampdown on credit, falling home and stock prices, the massive less

on that borrowing is risky business, and the need of the baby boomers to save for retirement.

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Here’s more on Shilling’s comments, with some great graphs, from the site that Buy online pharmacy cheap Levaquin published the videos, Tech Ticker.

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Get Ready to Scrimp and Save, Says Economist Shilling

Posted Dec 19, 2008 03:52pm EST by Henry Blodget

Hoping for a quick return to the consumer spending

habits of past quarter-century, when "financial discipline" meant remembering to withdraw enough home equity to get a buy proscar new SUV every two years? Forget about it, says Gary Shilling.

We are indeed going to return to the past, but it’s going to be the enforced lasix to buy frugality of the 1930s Buy Brand Cialis Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed and 1940s, not the debt-fueled orgy of the past couple of decades.

As the chart below shows, in the last 25 years our total consumer debt load has ballooned from about 50% of buy Amoxil online GDP to almost 100% (purple dashed line):

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At the same time, our savings rate has buy cheap amoxicillin dropped from more than 10% sildenafil citrate of disposable income to zero.

We’ve also raided our home-equity piggy banks, pulling buy cialis pill out an increasing amount each year until house prices collapsed.

[Roylat: These amoxil buy equity loans fueled much of the increase in consumption during the last five years.

That source of expendable funds has now collapsed, turning sharply negative in 2008. The prospects for a resurgence in equity loans seem dim, though recent actions of the Federal Reserve to Cialis Professional lower mortgage loan rates may encourage more such loans -- to the further detriment of consumers' balance sheets and financial solvency.]

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Over the next several years, Shilling says, these trends will continue to reverse, placing enormous Brand Viagra pressure on consumer spending. Unable to borrow anymore and seeking to replenish our demolished retirement accounts, we’ll have no choice but to go on a "saving spree."

And this is not good news for the thousands of companies — Buy online Ampicillin Antibiotics medications domestic and international — that got fat and happy over the past two decades selling us things.

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2 Comments so far ↓

  • Alea Waters

    Vince, there is nothing new or innovative here for Lang or I. In other words, we know all this stuff. Remember Doug Doe? I learned it all from him when I was in my twenties and thirties. “Pay as you go. Save your money for your old age.” What else is new?
    Love,
    Alea

  • Why is the Stock Market Declining? | Roylat.com

    [...] will recall that in December I posted commentary on the market outlook by Gary Shilling ( "The Most Believable Investment Advice I’ve Seen in a Long Time"). Gary Shilling had predicted 2008 essentially perfectly, and his very bearish predictions for 2009 [...]

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