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All the Negative on Geithner Plan May Be Positive

February 11th, 2009 · 1 Comment · Bailout, Banks, Debt, Economics, Financial, Policy

I’ve levitra on line now read a half-dozen or more analyses of Geithner’s bailout plan on Tuesday.

The writers are unanimously negative, terming the levitra brand vs ampicillin online generic Tadacip plan "fiasco," buy amoxicillin "failed," real disaster," and "wrong concept."

The major criticism was the lack of details in the "plan." But, I take this to be a good thing. At the least, it means that there remains strong internal debate about the right approach. At the best, it means that Geithner and his advisors buy levitra drugs are recognizing that the major banks are insolvent and need to be allowed to buying propecia fail or restructure, and they are trying to figure how to allow this in a politically palatable way.

Further, during the time that details need to be developed, the drumbeat of informed advice arguing amoxicillin buy viagra in las vegas | buy cialis we | buy levitra cheap online for nationalization and/or restructuring will increase.

Obama is not deaf, and clearly his inner staff is skeptical of aiding the banks, as opposed Kamagra Gold to the public good (see the NYT Ampicillin cheap online Levitra Professional article reporting on inner discussions). This suggest to me that the more time that passes, amoxil online the more likely is the plan to evolve away from putting more money

into failed banks to rescue shareholders — a highly desirable outcome.

The magnitude of the problem is way too large for the half measures outlined in Geithner’s talk. This is clearly why the stock market plunged after his talk. But, the problems are too big to bail out with public money.

The public (and Congress) won’t stand for it. To understand why this is so, read what Nouriel Roubini Kamagra Gold has to say. He is the buy cheap amoxicillin economist who has been perhaps the most right of all major commentators Viagra Professional about every aspect of this financial crisis low price levitra to date [emphases added]:

…[Our] latest estimates … suggest order kamagra that total losses on loans made by U.S. financial firms and the fall in the market value of the assets they are holding will be at their peak about $3.6 trillion. The U.S. banks and broker dealers are exposed to half of this figure, or $1.8 trillion; the rest is borne Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription by other financial institutions in the US and abroad. The Brand Levitra Online capital backing cheap drugs online the banks assets was last fall only $1.4 trillion, leaving the U.S. banking system some $400 billion in the hole, buy nolvadex or close to zero even after the government and private sector recapitalization of such banks. Thus, another $1.4 trillion will be needed to brink back the capital of banks to the level they had before the crisis; and such massive additional recapitalization is needed to resolve the credit crunch and restore lending to the private sector.

So these figures suggests that the US banking system is effectively insolvent in the aggregate; Online Cialis buy most of the UK banking system looks insolvent too; and many other banks in continental Europe are also insolvent.

Mr. Roubini considers alternative solutions and concludes that nationalization, taking over of failed banks by the government, wiping out shareholders, is the only feasible solution.

He then asks why the government isn’t proposing order online levitra this now. He answers seem plausible to me — and they give me hope that the right thing buy acomplia will be done eventually:

So why is the US government temporizing and avoiding doing the right thing, i.e. take over the insolvent banks

? There are two reasons.

First, there is still some small hope and a small probability that the economy will recover sooner than expected, that expected credit losses will be smaller than expected and that the current approach of recapping the banks and somehow working out the bad assets will work in due time. Second, taking over the banks – call is Levitra nationalization or, in a more politically correct way, “receivership” – is a radical action that requires most banks be clearly beyond pale and insolvent to be undertaken.  Today Citi and Bank of America clearly look like near-insolvent and ready to be taken over but JPMorgan and Wells Fargo do not yet.

But with the sharp rise in delinquencies  and charge-off rates that we are experiencing now on mortgages, commercial buy viagra jelly”>Kamagra Cialis online jelly real estate and consumer credit  in a matter of six to twelve months even JPMorgan and levofloxacin buy Buy Erectile Dysfunction medications generic cytotec Wells Cheap Propecia will likely look 0nline pharmacy as near-insolvent (as buy viagra cheap online | buy cialis online 32 | generic levitra buy online suggested by Chris Whalen, one of the leading independent analysts of the banking system).

Thus, if the government were to take over only Citi amoxil clavulin and Bank of America today (and wipe out common and preferred shareholders buy cialis tablets and also force unsecured creditors to take a haircut) a panic may ensue for other banks and the Lehman fallout that resulted from having unsecured creditors taking losses on their bonds will be repeated again.

Instead if, as likely, the current fudging strategy – of temporizing and hoping that things will improve for the economy and the banks – does not work and in 6-12 months most banks (the major four cheap Amoxil and the a good part of the buy cialis tablets remaining regional banks) all look like clearly insolvent you can then take them all over, wipe out common shareholders and preferred shareholders viagra sale and even force unsecured creditors to accept losses cialis 5mg side effects viagra sales ( in the form of a conversion of debt into equity and/or haircut on the face buy merck propecia value of their bond claims) as the losses will be so large that not treating such unsecured creditors would cheapest viagra be fiscally too expensive.

Mr. Roubini reaches the hopeful conclusion I share:

Buy Brand Cialis Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed

So while Plan A [Geithner's plan] is now underway today’s very negative market response to this Treasury plan suggest that it will not fly. Markets were expecting a more clear plan but also a plan that buy viagra online discount where can buy viagra | buy cialis pills | levitra online | buy cialis cialis | buy levitra online cheap would bail out shareholders and creditors of insolvent banks.  Unfortunately [I would say, "fortunately," Roylat] that online cheap ampicillin is not diflucan generic politically and fiscally feasible.

It is thus time to start to think and plan ahead for for Plan online buy levitra vardenafil lasix N (“nationalization” of insolvent banks).

Roubini’s full article

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