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Marc Faber’s Current Outlook — "In Gold I Trust, But … .."

March 1st, 2009 · 1 Comment · Commodities, Debt, Dollar, Economics, Federal Reserve, Financial, Global Economy, Gold, Interest rates, Policy, Stock Market, Technical Analysis, Wall Street

For those who are impressed by Marc Faber’s record of being right much more often than wrong, his current outlook will be eagerly received.

As usual, his views run contrary to the conventional buy viagra pill wisdom, and in some instances even contrary to some of his own recent views — especially with respect to the present desirability viagra online sale of investing in gold.

To say that he has switched from being a stock market Levitra bear to being a bull would be inaccurate, but it is fair to say that he now believes the long-term buy Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription cialis internet upside potentials outweigh the downside risks.

Where he is bearish is on the dollar and U.S. Tre asuries, both of which he continues to believe will be long-term losers

as a consequence of the unrestrained monetary policies

of the Federal Reserve. Like all intelligent prognosticators,  he heavily qualifies his thoughts and acknowledges that they may easily wrong in the short run.

Nevertheless, his views are levitra online based on careful weighing of evidence and long experience.   

Be aware that the excerpts

reprinted here give only a spare glimpse of the 16 pages of his newsletter. Those who see the wisdom in the excerpts cialis generic vs brand and who manage their own investments will find his newsletter a small price for big insight.

levitra brand

Excerpts from his current newsletter, order antibiotics online target=”_blank”>available by subscription, are reprinted by permission.

References to figures in his newsletter have been omitted without ellipses in the excerpts.

In Gold I Trust! But With Some Reservations…..
Marc Faber
March 1, 2009

To Kamagra Gold put it bluntly, the global economy is in deep trouble! An
unprecedented wealth contraction post Second World War has occurred,
and industrial production as well buy cialis overseas href=”http://buynolvadexcheap.com “>cheap online nolvadex as capacity utilization rates, new orders,
exports, and incomes are contracting at an unprecedented rate.Now, buy cytotec I am not trying to downplay the economic downturn. But since I
travel extensively all over the world propecia online I am actually astonished that, despite
levitra website />horrible economic buy viagra online pharmacy | buy cialis online overnight | levitra vardenafil buy xanax SX”>Tadalis SX statistics and despite business being down everywhere
(however, exceptions where to buy cialis exist such as sales of computer games, guns,
bullets, private label brands, gold coins, safes, and of course – as can be
expected – the expansion of the government), economic activity is still at
a relatively high level.

Maybe people live in denial and do not yet buy cialis
recognize how much more the economy is likely to deteriorate or they
take a fatalistic view by thinking about how much money they lost in
asset markets and, therefore, decide to have a good time either traveling ampicillin buy
on holidays or going out at night. lasix purchase But if this is a depression, then I have to
say that it is a depression at a relatively high level kamagra of prosperity.
Personally, I think the global economy will deteriorate far more and that
Topamax Online jelly”>Kamagra jelly />we have, so far, only seen the appetizer of the great economic Amoxil buy cheap
contraction.
  [Underline added. Bold in original.]

My take is that Online Cialis buy global non-government sector GDP has already
contracted by about 10% from its 2007 peak and that it will contract by
another 10% to 20% in real terms.

I am aware that official statistics by
governments do not support this observation, but asset markets seem to
confirm the magnitude of the economic contraction…

[As] as far as I am concerned, the CRB [commodity] Index suggests that
we are in for a terrific cialis discount economic slump. This index is in nominal terms
around 10% above the 1999 and 2001 lows but in real terms below these
lows (I should add that the 1999 and Buy Brand Cialis Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed 2001 lows occurred after a viagra drugs online 20 years
bear market – see Figure 3). The point is simply that some asset markets
may already have discounted much of the coming slump…

I am fully aware that the majority
of investors now feel that amoxicillin amoxil there are no good news on the horizon and that,
therefore, another sell- off to new lows is in the cards. However, the
renewed weakness in major indices may have obscured the fact that some
stocks and even indices had major rallies since the November lows…

I have sympathy with Alan Newman, the editor of Cross
Currents (www.cross-currents.net), viagra levaquin Cialis online prescription generic online who wrote a few days ago that, “our
technical buy cialis online with a prescription work reveals a sold out stock market. Those looking for a
capitulation phase as a catalyst to a reversal are not likely to get
one. There can’t be a capitulation when investors are already out of the
market…

Now, I have no idea whether by year-end 2009 stock markets will be
higher than they are today or even lower.

However, I want our readers to
recall well what sentiment was like in the summer and fall of 2007 when
equities peaked out. Just about everybody was widely optimistic about the
global economy, the BRICS, synchronized growth forever, and
decoupling of emerging economies in case of a US recession. In addition,
nobody forecasted a 50% drop in global equity prices (except some
pundits who had been forecasting this event since 1987). Now, 15 months
after the October 2007 peak and with stock markets down 50% or more
from their highs in a very brief period of time, everybody is extremely
negative about “everything.”…

But the point is this: The 2007 – 2009 US bear market has been
unprecedented post Second World War in terms of its downside
momentum and its brevity.  Not surprisingly
has the stock market’s extreme collapse – against all expectation – brought
about bearish sentiment extremes, which in the past were usually
associated with temporary rebounds or often with major market lows…

buy cialis fast shipping

Still, I wish to clarify my position very clearly: I am extremely
negative about the global economy and financial buy levitra markets in real terms. I
doubt buy cialis pills online we shall see global peak economic activity and growth such as we
had between 2004 and 2007 for a very long time… [Emphasis in original]

[The} more I think about current condition, the more depressed I become.
Amidst a global slump I believe that we are moving toward high inflation
(a further depreciation in paper money’s purchasing power), evil fascism,
and cheap buy ampicillin cheap amoxil vicious military confrontations. In theory, gold would be the best
asset to own in this condition… However,I have some reservations…

For one, gold has already experienced a powerful bull market Brand buy cheap amoxicillin Viagra between
2001 and the present. As a result, gold has become relatively expensive
compared to equities and the CRB Index.

rimonabant I am not suggesting that this
outperformance of buy amoxil gold compared to other commodities and equities
cannot continue. In fact, I believe that in time one Dow Jones will buy
less than one ounce of gold. However, near term, gold would seem to be
both over-bought against the Dow Jones and online buy Ampicillin propecia buy the CRB Index.

I, therefore, expect that at some point the Fed’s money printing will be
effective buy levitra online cheap in lifting real estate and equity prices, Brand Viagra but at the cost of
weakening government bonds and the US dollar…

All I am suggesting is that investors should be prepared or begin to
diversify their currency exposure for cheap diflucan the day US “money printing” Buy Cialis will
lift asset prices and weaken the US dollar.

© Copyright 2009 by Marc Faber Limited – All Buy Generic Viagra rights reserved. Reprinted by permission.

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