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Earnings Analysis Provides No Comfort for Bulls

May 25th, 2009 · No Comments · Economy, Stock Market

A detailed review cialis daily generic of past history and an analysis of likely future corporate earnings in the US do not yield a bullish picture.

The following is buy cheap propecia from Gluskin Sheff, a C

anadian economist. He concludes:

Slap 12x multiple on to a $70 mid-cycle earnings estimate, which I think is the buy cialis soft
best we can accomplish and we are at 840 on the S&P 500. But assuming Online Levitra buy
that S&P 500 operating EPS first has 30% more downside before we see the
trough (which would be $30), and then apply a typical 60% premium to that
under the generous assumption that we see buy real viagra levitra buying without prescription a typical mid-cycle rebound from
the lows, then we would buy penicillin be talking about mid-cycle earnings just below
$50. Slap on a 12x multiple and there you have the downside story: VPXL Online 600 on
the S&P buy online diflucan 500.

Here is the full story (extracted from a larger article):

buy cheap amoxil

U.S. buyviagra CORPORATE PROFITS OUTLOOK

A client brought up a point to me a few days ago as to whether we should be
doing equity market analysis based on “mid-cycle” earnings — this is what a Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription
lot of strategists are saying right now.

(Interesting how this exercise is never
conducted when we buy generic levitra are late in the cycle!)
Now, if this was a ‘normal’ manufacturing recession like all the other 9
downturns in the post-WWII era, then mid-cycle earnings would be 60%
above the trough and this would mean doing the analysis on $70 on
operating EPS (we are now at $43 on 4-quarter lasix online trailing, the peak was
$91.50 back in the second quarter of 2007). But this is not a normal
recession, and what preceded it was not a normal expansion.

This levaquin Brand Levitra is a
balance sheet recession. Much trickier.

First, the ratio of after-tax profits (national accounts basis) to GDP has yet to
fully mean revert (see Chart 6). It peaked at 11%, viagra soft which was a record Online kamagra cheap Viagra Shops during
the bubble, and in the bear market has compressed to 6.6%, which was the
peak in many prior cycles.

Bottoms purchase viagra online in this proxy for margins are around phentermine 4½%
and we are not quite there viagra online yet. And, in an environment of flat-to-negative
nominal GDP, getting to that buy cialis pills traditional trough would imply another 30%
potential downside to earnings even before we can contemplate what a
possible mid-cycle level on earnings would be.

Plus, buy cialis online 32 we could well be on our
way into a double-dip recession three years from now once the fiscal and
monetary stimulus is withdrawn. This happened to the USA in the 30s, and
to Japan on the 90s.

Ampicillin cheap online 0px; border-bottom: 0px” height=”375″ Provigil online No prescription alt=”image” levitra cytotec asthma brand price src=”http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/image-thumb5.png” width=”371″ border=”0″ />

Chart 7 shows how leverage ampicillin online played a role in the bull market and how
deleveraging has played a role in the bear market. The share of earnings
devoted to financial nolvadex online activities hit Brand Viagra an unprecedented 40%+ this cycle Cialis and has
since collapsed to 14%. The financial share of earnings usually bottoms
around 11% so even here there is still more Viagra effects dosage risk of earnings compression
(likely related to credit cards and commercial real estate exposure).

price levitra title=”image” style=”border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px” height=”374″ alt=”image” Buy Female Viagra Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed src=”http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/image-thumb6.png” buy cialis online overnight viagra for women online width=”379″ border=”0″ />
In other buy cialis tablets words, there is still more substantial propecia Silagra brand downside risk than upside risk
to the U.S. corporate earnings outlook.

I doubt the recession is going to end
as quickly as the consensus of economists and strategists believe (next
quarter). And, even if we manage to see $70 amoxil online on mid-cycle ampicillin buy online EPS, what is the
appropriate multiple? The fair-value P/E should approximate the ‘real’ Baa
corporate bond yield, which means a 12x multiple is appropriate.

Though this
can clearly change — judging by the growing share of government in the
economy, more regulation and less buy pfizer viagra online free trade, the implications for
productivity, the potential GDP growth rate and the fair-value multiple will
likely all be lower.

Slap 12x multiple on to a $70 mid-cycle earnings estimate, which I think is the
best we can accomplish and we are at 840 on the S&P 500. But assuming
that S&P 500 operating EPS first has 30% more downside before we see the
trough (which would be $30), and then apply a typical Buy Viagra 60% premium to that
under the generous assumption that we see a typical mid-cycle rebound from
the lows, then we would be talking about mid-cycle Viagra online buy amoxil earnings just below
$50. Slap on a 12x multiple and there you have amoxil online the downside story: 600 on
the S&P 500.
But at least we know what the range of outcomes can look like: 600 to 840
on buy cialis cialis the S&P 500. On Viagra for sale March 9th, there was much more upside; today buy Amoxil generic href=”http://pillshopping.net/”>diet phentermine pill prescription at 892,
quite the opposite.

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