Over the weekend, I read a commentary of Marc Faber made on June 9, the previous Monday. As the market has dropped precipitously this morning, it seems that once again Mr. Faber has given advice that would have been well to see and heed. Though I knew in general Mr. Faber’s advice, I have been lured by the market behavior into increasing my own exposure in the last week, to currency and commodity trades, to my current sorrow.
The burning question is whether this downturn will be brief, as have been previous falls, or are we at the end of the “green shoots” rally? Clearly, there are plenty of reasons for concern about the extent, rate, and profitability of any recovery. These can obviously be brought to the fore to justify any downturn in the market. The next few days will give more of a clue as to whether the reflation by central banks is going to be sufficient to support stocks and commodities, or whether we are going to experience the long-called-for “correction” to the exuberant rally of the last three month.
Here are Marc Faber’s comments (thanks to The Big Picture for reference), together with a link to the video interview.
See high risk in entering equities now: Marc Faber
Published on Mon, Jun 08, 2009 at 09:42 , Updated at Tue, Jun 09, 2009 at 10:09
Source : CNBC-TV18
Marc Faber, Investment Guru, www.gloomboomdoom.com, sees a high risk in entering equities now. "This is not a good time to enter equities, except for traders."
He has booked some profits in Asia and finds valuations there reasonable.
According to Faber, India has good growth potential, but was quick to add that economic, political uncertainty remains.
He does not see attractive entry points for commodities currently.
Also see: Exit commodity cyclicals if crude trades above $70/bbl: CLSA
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Marc Faber on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.
Q: In the last few days, global markets have sort of been ranging. Do you see this as a consolidation before another leg of the upmove or is it just tiring out?
A: I would say that the entry point for people who want to buy equities around the world is a high risk entry point because the global economy has bottomed out. There is little potential to grow very strongly. So, there will be disappointments in terms of earnings in the second half of 2009. The gravy is a bit out of markets. India was below 8,000 on the Sensex and has gone up almost 100%. I don’t think it is a very good time to make an entry into the markets except for traders.
Q: Till Friday last week, the Dow had almost reversed all its losses in 2009. How would you map the second half of this year?
A: In the long-term, the dollar would be a weak currency. But we have a lot of volatility and can go either way. No paper currency is very desirable. That is the problem.
Q: If you had positions in Asian equities at this point, would you be taking profits or would you remain invested?
A: I have taken some money off the table. In Asia, we have lots of stock markets and lots of stocks that have reasonable valuation. I wouldn’t say very cheap, but reasonable valuation. If you have a long-term time horizon and have cash flow whereby you can buy more shares if they should go down, then I would say hold them. But as a trader, I think as of today I would rather sell than buy.
Q: Where does India fit-in in that valuation spectrum? Do you agree with the theory that has been put forth that India now deserves a premium to other emerging markets or maybe even Asian markets?
A: I think that India has of course good growth potential, but there are still lots of uncertainty, both political and economic. As a trader, I would rather sell India than buy it. But as a long-term investor, I would hold here in India.
Q: Do you think commodities are also about to top out? If you look at crude and even metals, would you be taking profits here if you had positions?
A: Yes, I have had positions. Many resource stocks have more than doubled from the lows. Some have even tripled. I don’t think that it is a very attractive entry point to buy these commodities and commodity-related stocks.
Oil is up almost 100% from the lows. The demand for oil is still rising but not as much as before. There is plenty of flight. So, I just don’t think it is a very good time to buy.
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