<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Roylat.com &#187; Analysis</title>
	<atom:link href="http://roylat.com/category/analysis/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://roylat.com</link>
	<description>Commentary on a Mixed Up and Sometimes Backward World</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 29 Aug 2011 12:37:19 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=</generator>
		<item>
		<title>The Amazing World of High Frequency Trading &#8211; You Lose!</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:18:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wrote last week about the high level of program trading, notably buy amoxil by Goldman cheap cytotec Sachs. The details on this trading are emerging fast in the blogosphere, and it won’t be long until it hits the mainstream. There is a war going on among competing firms, using computers and inside order information, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://roylat.com/2009/07/why-im-discouraged/" <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online drugstore</a>  target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;>I wrote last week</a> about the high level of program trading, notably <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>  by Goldman <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cheap cytotec</a>  Sachs. The details on this trading are emerging fast in the blogosphere, and it won’t be long until it hits the mainstream. There is a war going on among competing firms, using computers and inside order information, to capture the immense profits possible.&#160; To get a sense of the scale, Goldman Sachs earned $25 billion in 2007 on program trading. A student of the field estimate that they will make $26 billion this year. This is not chicken feed, even in today’s trillion dollar world.</p>
<p>Now, some of the competitors are revealing the details because they feel they are being unfairly excluded because of inside deals between Goldman Sachs  and the exchanges. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://viagrabuysale.com'>buy xenical viagra propecia com</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> I myself <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">amoxicillin</a>  have watched limit orders for a stock change instantaneously after a single sale – not just one order, <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxil online</a>  but a whole host of orders. I realized that all of these orders had to be controlled by computers. Now the full story  is emerging. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cialisbuysale.com'>30mg cialis</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> It is fascinating, amazing, highly technical, and full of high finance shenanigans to the major benefit of a few favored firms <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/">Cialis for sale</a>  – notably Goldman Sachs. </p>
<p>What <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">generic levaquin</a>  really caught my eye was that the NYSE <strong>pays</strong> firms, again, notably, Goldman Sachs, 1/4 cent per share to “supply liquidity” for providing limit orders (which be posted a fraction of a second before being executed, because the computer program sees the profit potential and acts on <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">lasix order</a>  it). On a million shares, 1/4 cent per share amounts to $2500. Repeat this a thousand times for a billion shares, and you get $2,500,000 –- about <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online | where to buy cialis | order online levitra</a>  one week or Goldman <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.com">buy cheap acomplia</a>  Sach’s recent program trading. But this doesn’t  tell the whole story. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-doxycycline.com'>doxycycline antibiotic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Because Goldman Sachs is in a privileged position to know the order flows and execute trades, 87.5% of their <a href="http://provigilbuysale.com">Provigil online No prescription</a>  trades make money! Generally, only a penny a share, but the pennies mount up – and they are in effect a transaction tax paid by you. </p>
<p>Below <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy real viagra without prescription | buy cialis fast shipping | low price levitra</a> <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online Viagra buy</a>   are some links to some further sources on this story, but first is a good summary of the situation by John Mauldin. It has a link at the end where, if you are properly outraged, will take you to where you can complain directly to the SEC. Understanding this is going to require some concentration (even I can’t follow it all), but the effort will <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">buy ampicilin online</a>  be rewarded.</p>
<blockquote><h5><a href="http://frontlinethoughts.com/article.asp?id=mwo071009" <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Brand Levitra">Brand Levitra</a>  target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;>This Is Outrageous</a></h5>
<p> <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">buy <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis">Cialis</a>  acomplia online</a>     <a href="http://marvabrooks.com/images/">buy levitra online</a>
<p>But first, I want <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-antibiotics-pills.html">Buy <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">buy cheap ampicillin</a>  Antibiotics medications</a>  to direct the attention of those in the US finance industry to a white paper written by Themis Trading, called &quot;Toxic Equity Trading Order Flow on Wall Street.&quot; Basically, <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis</a>  they outline why volume and volatility have jumped so much since 2007; and it&#8217;s not due   to the credit crisis. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-order.com/item.php?group_id=51&#038;id=5629'>chloromycetin ointment</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cheap-antibiotic.com/buy/cipro.html'>ciprofloxacin and tinidazole</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> They estimate that 70% of the volume in today&#8217;s <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  markets is from high-frequency program trading. They outline how large brokers and funds can buy and sell a stock for <a href="http://igot-rippedoff.com/images/">buy generic viagra professional | buy cialis pharmacy | cheap levitra generic</a>  the same price and still make 0.5 cents. Do that a million  times a  day and the  money adds up. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://prescription-pharm.com/buy/bestsellers/cialis.html'>avodart cialis clomid diflucan dostinex gluco</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-orlistat.com'>diet orlistat pill prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-vpxl.com'>vpxl really</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Or maybe do it 8 billion times. It requires powerful computers, complicity of the exchanges (because the exchanges get paid a lot), and highly proximate  computer connections. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>how to buy drugs</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Literally, the need for speed is so important that to <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand online</a>  play this game  you have to have  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-order.com'>buy antibiotics without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->your servers physically at the exchange. Across the <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Viagra Professional">Viagra Professional</a> <a href="http://pharm-prescription.net/buy/orlistat.html">Buy Orlistat Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>   river in New Jersey is too slow.  Forget Texas or  California. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>add cialis drug link</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmprescription.com'>buy doxycycline without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> This is a game <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">online amoxil</a>  played out  in microseconds. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibioticscheap.com/buy/bactrim.html'>160 800 bactrim ds</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
<p> <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">amoxicillin</a> <a href="http://jobs-recruitment.info/images/">purchase viagra | buy cialis generic online | levitra buying</a>   <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">online pharmacy</a>  Jelly&#8221;>Viagra Jelly</a>
<p>The retail world doesn&#8217;t get to play. This is a game only for big boys who can afford to pay for the &quot;arms&quot; needed to fight this war. But the rest of us pay for the game, as that half cent is like a tax on transactions, not to mention the increased daily volatility, <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,cal/date,2060-06-01/">otc cialis</a>  which skews pricing. Think it doesn&#8217;t affect you? That &quot;tax&quot; is paid by mutual funds, your pension fund, and every large institution.</p>
<p>Frankly, this is outrageous. The more I read the madder I got. And it is going to get worse as computers get faster and software more intelligent. We <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy  Cialis online</a>  need rules to level the playing field. Themis suggests one simple one: just make it a rule that all  bids have to be good for at least one second. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://order-antibiotics.com'>drugs and antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> That would cure a  lot of problems. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>1 3 array buy drug market</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> One  lousy second! <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://accutanebuysale.com'>accutane education legal</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> In a world of microseconds, that is an eternity.</p>
<p>Goldman Sachs went after an employee who stole some of their latest <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra</a>  and greatest  software this last week. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pillprescription.com'>pharmaceutical pills</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->  The US assistant  attorney general said in the courtroom that the software had the potential to manipulate the market. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmacy-cipro.com'>action cipro</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-cheap.com'>buy generic antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Imagine that. I am shocked. There is gambling going <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/propecia.html">Buy Propecia Online</a>  on in the back room? Gee, commissioner, I had no idea.</p>
<p> <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis now</a>
<p>All this &quot;algo&quot; <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buyviagra | buy cialis overseas | buy levitra drugs</a>  (algorithmic) trading also gives a very false impression of volume. If you are a fund and see 10 million shares a day traded, you might feel comfortable that you could hold one million shares and exit your trade easily. <a href="http://onenetcenter.com/images/">buy pfizer viagra online | buy cialis pills online | buy levitra vardenafil</a>  But if 80% of the volume is false &quot;algo&quot; trading, that volume <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra online price</a>  isn&#8217;t really there. You may have a position that will be a problem if you want to exit, and not know it.</p>
<p>&quot;High-frequency trading strategies have become a stealth <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">proscar</a>  tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">generic drugs</a>  The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount </a>  traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">online pharmacy</a>  cost</a>  their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don&#8217;t even know it.&quot; (Themis Trading)</p>
<p> <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxil online</a>
<p>We are literally talking billions of dollars here. The SEC needs to step in and stop this, and soon. This is a lot more important than the salaries of investment professionals, for which the Obama administration today suggested new rules, which would allow the SEC to oversee salaries <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">tadalafil</a>  at member firms. Seriously? They don&#8217;t have <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Cialis online</a>  enough to do already? </p>
<p>The link to the white paper is <a href="http://www.themistrading.com/article_files/0000/0348/Toxic_Equity_Trading_on_Wall_Street_12-17-08.pdf">http://www.themistrading.com/article_files/0000/0348/Toxic_Equity_Trading_on_Wall_Street_12-17-08.pdf</a>. <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">generic diflucan</a>  Themis Trading is at <a href="http://www.themistrading.com/">http://www.themistrading.com/</a>. </p>
<p>Read the paper. Then, if you like, drop the very nice folks at the SEC your thoughts at <a href="mailto:tradingandmarkets@sec.gov">tradingandmarkets@sec.gov</a>. <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buy propecia</a>  </p>
</blockquote>
<p>More on this story, with links to many sources, are <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex buy</a>  contained in <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/king-report-hft/" target="_blank">a recent Casey Report</a>, reprinted  by the Big Picture. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://comprare-pillole.com/online-carmol-scalp.php'>Online Carmol Scalp | Antibiotici Online</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> </p>
<p> <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Viagra Professional">Viagra Professional</a>
<p>The inner connections and political influence of Goldman Sachs seems like a story that is going to keep on growing – or at least should. It is  a quintessenti <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>5mg cialis generic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->al example of the huge public costs of the mega-finance that our country and most of the world has come to depend on to fuel the endless economic growth deemed essential for well being. The costs go well beyond the profits of the free-wheeling casino firms that dominate the financial world. Far more important are their political connections, which skew public policies to their benefit and to the detriment of the public.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Tale of Two Depressions</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:13:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The “Tale of Two Depressions” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic buy viagra activity in the Great Depression Tadalis SX and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The “<a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421">Tale of Two Depressions</a>” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>  activity in the Great Depression <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Tadalis SX">Tadalis SX</a>  and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of the Great Depression;&#160; 2) the stock markets have fallen much faster and further than they did following 1929; 3) <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil online</a>  monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have been much greater <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxicillin <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buying propecia</a>  no prescription</a>  now than in 1929-31. Here are several key figures from the article:</p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image1.png"><img <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buy levitra drugs</a>  title=&#8221;image&#8221; style=&#8221;border-right: <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis tablets</a>  0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px&#8221; height=&#8221;275&#8243; alt=&#8221;image&#8221; src=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb1.png&#8221; width=&#8221;444&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a> </p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image2.png"><img title="image" style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px" height="258" alt="image" src="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb2.png" width="451" border="0" /></a> </p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image3.png"><img title="image" style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px" height="280" alt="image" src="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb3.png" <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra on line</a>  <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">buy cheap amoxicillin</a>  width=&#8221;453&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a> </p>
</p>
<p>If we were to continue the path of the Great Depression, real economic activity would have still a lot further to fall, and the stock <a href="http://accutanebuysale.com">Cheap Accutane <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/clomid.html">Buy Clomid Online</a>  </a>  market, <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy nolvadex</a>  though it has fallen a lot this time, would still have another 50% decline to  go. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-cheap.com'>buy generic antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->  Still, if  the Great Depression is a guide,  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://accutanebuysale.com'>accutane education legal</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the stock market now is well below the level it was at the same relative point in time. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>1 3 array buy drug market</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> </p>
<p>To me, the real question that  these charts raise relates to the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary measures that have been taken this time. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-doxycycline.com'>doxycycline antibiotic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Here are some comparison charts:</p>
<p> <a href="http://loanscreditandinsurance.info/images/index.php">buy cialis brand</a>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image4.png"><img title="image" style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>  <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Viagra online</a>  Professional&#8221;>Viagra Professional</a>  border-left: 0px; border-bottom: <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">buy merck propecia</a>  0px&#8221; height=&#8221;396&#8243; alt=&#8221;image&#8221; src=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb4.png&#8221; width=&#8221;460&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a> </p>
<p>Clearly, short-term interest rates were lower initially and have since been <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">online lasix</a>  pushed down to unprecedented <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">buy <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin online</a>  <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxicillin</a>  cheap viagra</a> <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.net">acomplia cheap</a>   levels. </p>
<p>The money supply, which is another indicator of monetary policy, is shown starting 4 years before  the downturn  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>add cialis drug link</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->(unlike <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  brand name</a>  the prior charts):</p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image5.png"><img <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">diflucan <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online <a href="http://job-killer.com/images/">buy cheapest viagra online | buy cialis with no prescription | cheap levitra generic</a>  cheap ampicillin</a>  Jelly&#8221;>Viagra Jelly</a>  buy online</a>  title=&#8221;image&#8221; style=&#8221;border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px&#8221; height=&#8221;362&#8243; alt=&#8221;image&#8221; src=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb5.png&#8221; width=&#8221;431&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a> </p>
<p>The authors comment <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-erectile-dysfunction-pills.html">Buy Erectile Dysfunction medications</a>  on this chart:</p>
<p> <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxicillin</a>  <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">cheapest viagra</a><br />
<blockquote>
<p>Figure 5 shows money supply for a GDP-weighted average of 19 countries <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy generic cytotec</a>  accounting for more than  half of world GDP in 2004. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>how to buy drugs</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Clearly, monetary expansion was more rapid in the run-up to the 2008 crisis than during 1925-29, which is a reminder <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">buy <a href="http://marketing4profit.info/images/">buy viagra online next day delivery | how can i buy cialis | order online levitra</a>  drugs online without prescription</a>  that the stage-setting events were <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount | buy cialis cialis | buy levitra online cheap</a>  not the same in the two cases. Moreover, the global money supply continued to grow rapidly in 2008, unlike in 1929 when it levelled off and then underwent a catastrophic decline.</p>
<p> <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a> <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">online pharmacy levitra</a>   </p></blockquote>
<p>Fiscal policy, as represented by government surpluses or  deficits <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-orlistat.com'>diet orlistat pill prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->, is shown again starting 4  years before the downturn. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-clomid.com/buy/women_s_health/evista.html'>165 autonews deportiva evista francesa numero</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image6.png"><img <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">acomplia</a>  title=&#8221;image&#8221; style=&#8221;border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; display: inline; border-left: <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  0px; border-bottom: 0px&#8221; height=&#8221;421&#8243; alt=&#8221;image&#8221; src=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/image-thumb6.png&#8221; width=&#8221;469&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a> </p>
<p>While monetary  policy is wildly different than following 1929, fiscal  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://order-antibiotics.com'>drugs and antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->policy is much less radically different. If we look at year 5 (2009), the fiscal deficit is about 2% of GDP. In 1930, it was zero; but 2% of GDP is not very significant. In 2010,  the deficit  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-vpxl.com'>vpxl really</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->is projected to be much larger, over 5%, compared to  still zero in   1931. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cialisbuysale.com'>30mg cialis</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmacy-cipro.com'>action cipro</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pillprescription.com'>pharmaceutical pills</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> </p>
<p>The burning question <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">Buy <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra | buy cialis pills | levitra online</a>  cheap Levaquin</a>  is whether these differences are enough to push the world economy onto a different, more positive path <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy Amoxil online</a>  Viagra online</a>  than occurred in the 1930’s. There are certainly skeptics, especially followers of the Austrian school of economics. The current prevailing view, though, is that these measures, plus more that <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  will be tried if these seem inadequate, will succeed. This seems overly sanguine  to me. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-order.com'>buy antibiotics without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Rather, I think it is best to view <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">Ampicillin cheap online</a>  us as in the midst of a grand economic experiment on the <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis cheap</a> <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Kamagra jelly">Kamagra jelly</a>    largest scale  ever tried. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://parmacy-shoponline.com/buy/anti_allergic_asthma/ventolin.html'>albuterol ventolin</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cheap-antibiotic.com/buy/cipro.html'>ciprofloxacin and tinidazole</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Experiments, by their very nature, have uncertain outcomes.</p>
<p>We have already seen one part of the policy armada begin to come apart: the pushing down of <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">low price levitra</a>  long-term   interest rates in order to make mortgages  cheaper and house purchases more affordable. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://comprar-pastillas.com/en-linea-triple-antibiotic.php'>En Linea Triple Antibiotic | Antibioticos En Linea</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://viagrabuysale.com'>buy xenical viagra propecia com</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmprescription.com'>buy doxycycline without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> In the last month, the market has turned sour on US Treasuries. Yields on ten-year Treasuries have risen remarkably this year. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury due May 2019 ended last week at 3.83 percent, up from the low this year of 2.14 percent on Jan. 15 (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&amp;sid=axq3ToKyUXnE&amp;refer=economy">Bloomberg</a>). Rising long term Treasury yields have pushed up mortgage rates from a low of 4.75% <a href="http://online-prescription-med.com/buy/vpxl.html">Buy VPXL Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  just a little over a month ago to a current 5.45%.</p>
<p>The rise in Treasury yields is being attributed to the massive deficits (the flip side of the economic stimulus). The federal government is going to need to sell $2 trillion of bonds to cover the deficit. There is skepticism  in the market that this amount will be saleable at current yields, especially given the concern that all of the monetary measure will lead to  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>5mg cialis generic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->inflation. Clearly, not everything is under the control of central government  policy makers. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://prescription-pharm.com/buy/bestsellers/cialis.html'>avodart cialis clomid diflucan dostinex gluco</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
<p> <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,flyer/date,2060-05-01/">liquid <a href="http://over50losingweight.com/images/">424 buy viagra</a>  cialis</a> </p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Nate Silver &#8211; Too Optimistic about Americans Turning Away from Cars</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/05/nate-silver-too-optimistic-about-americans-turning-away-from-cars/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/05/nate-silver-too-optimistic-about-americans-turning-away-from-cars/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2009 22:09:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Statistics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/05/nate-silver-too-optimistic-about-americans-turning-away-from-cars/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently, Nate cheap acomplia Silver, who was the preeminen t ciprofloxacin and tinidazole predictor of the 2008 how to buy drugs Presidential election outcome, recently published an article in doxycycline antibiotic they were. He is cautious about asserting this as the case, but he ends the article with viagra generic online a similar thought: The [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Recently, <a href="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/">Nate <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">cheap acomplia</a>  Silver</a>, who was the preeminen t  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cheap-antibiotic.com/buy/cipro.html'>ciprofloxacin and tinidazole</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->predictor of the  2008  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>how to buy drugs</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->Presidential election outcome, recently published an article in <a href="http://www.esquire.com/features/data/nate-silver-  car <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://prescription-pharm.com/buy/bestsellers/cialis.html'>avodart cialis clomid diflucan dostinex gluco</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-vpxl.com'>vpxl really</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->-culture-stats-0609&#8243;>Esquire</a>. <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online drugstore</a>  In  it, <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-order.com'>buy antibiotics without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> he analyzes the historical factors that have reasonably successfully predicted gasoline consumption in the past. When he applies these historic prediction <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">propecia brand</a>  equations to January 2009, they predict that gasoline consumption should have increased because <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-antibiotics-pills.html">Buy Antibiotics medications</a>  of the large (38%) drop in prices from the previous <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Kamagra jelly">Kamagra <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy Viagra online</a> <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online | where to buy cialis | order online levitra</a>   jelly</a>  January.&#160; Actual driving per person was down by 4% versus  a ye <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://order-antibiotics.com'>drugs and antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->ar ago.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.esquire.com/features/data/nate-silver-car-culture-stats-0609">Mr. <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">tadalafil</a>  Silver conjectures</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Could it be that there&#8217;s been some sort of paradigm <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra <a href="http://jobs-recruitment.info/images/">purchase viagra | buy cialis generic online | levitra buying</a>  Soft&#8221;>Kamagra <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Viagra online</a>  Soft</a>  shift in Americans&#8217; attitudes toward their cars? Perhaps, given the exorbitant gas prices of last summer, Americans realized that they weren&#8217;t quite as dependent on their vehicles as  they once thought  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-doxycycline.com'>doxycycline antibiotic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->they were.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>He is cautious about asserting this as the case, but he ends the article with <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra generic online</a>  a similar thought:</p>
<blockquote><p>The exceptionally sluggish pace of new-vehicle sales, <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">online pharmacy</a>   moreo <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://orden-pildora.com/orden-synercid.php'>Orden Synercid | Orden Antibioticos</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->ver, <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">buy ampicillin cheap</a>  in the face of  extremel <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pills-storeonline.com/buy/antibiotics/doxycycline.html'>doxycycline</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->y attractive incentives being offered by the automakers might imply that Americans are considering making  more-permanent adjustments to their lifestyles. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>5mg cialis generic</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
</blockquote>
<p>I would be happy to believe that Mr. Silver is right, but unfortunately, I don’t think his analysis is compelling.</p>
<p>Several years ago, I did a similar analysis of miles driven using <a href="http://onenetcenter.com/images/">buy pfizer viagra online | buy cialis pills online | buy levitra vardenafil</a>  income and gasoline prices as explanatory variables. It successfully predicted fairly  accurately  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://viagrabuysale.com'>buy xenical viagra propecia com</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->changes in gasoline consumption <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cytotec asthma</a>  for the <a href="http://marvabrooks.com/images/">buy viagra pill</a>  period analyzed. I decided to see what my model would predict for January, 2009. It predicted an increase in gasoline consumption of about 2.4% for January 2009. This was lower than Mr. Silver’s prediction of about a 4% increase, but it still is supportive of Nate&#8217;s contention that behavior has shifted in the last year.</p>
<p>Many of us would be happy if Americans were <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxil</a>  shifting their attitude <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">amoxicillin</a>  toward cars for the better (and lesser), but I think there is a more likely explanation <a href="http://igot-rippedoff.com/images/">buy generic viagra professional | buy cialis pharmacy | cheap levitra generic</a>  that doesn&#8217;t involve any shift in attitudes. <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">buy levitra</a>  </p>
<p><strong> In my analysis,  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pillprescription.com'>pharmaceutical pills</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->I used per capita income and Mr. Silver used employment/unemployment <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/">Cialis <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin buy</a>  for sale</a>  to reflect changes in the economy that impact driving. What neither of these capture are changes in wealth <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/vpxl.html">Buy VPXL Online</a>  and borrowing, and these are <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Viagra Professional">Viagra Professional</a>  what most likely explains the much <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">lasix buy online</a>  lower level of driving &#8212; as well as lower purchases of automobiles and <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">Amoxil buy cheap</a>  many other products. </strong></p>
<p>Wealth has been estimated to have fallen by about $11 trillion dollars in 2008. This is about equal but opposite to total earned disposable income in 2008 and about equal to 10% of all savings and other net assets. </p>
<p>Further, in years prior to 2008, people were borrowing <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount </a>  jelly&#8221;>Kamagra jelly</a>  against their rising home equity and using the proceeds to support their consumption. Again, in the latter part of 2008, people shifted from being big net borrowers to being net savers. The change was substantial and significant, people shifted from net annual borrowings of about $1 trillion in 2006-2007 to net repayments in the 4th quarter of 2008 at an annual rate <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/page,shop.product_details/category_id,6/flypage,flypage.tpl/product_id,59/option,com_virtuemart/Itemid,1/">online prescription cialis</a>  of <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Levitra Professional">Levitra Professional</a>  about $400 billion.&#160; <a href="http://provigilbuysale.com">Provigil pharmacy</a>  </p>
<p>The increase in wealth in earlier years not only made people feel richer, it allowed people  to borrow  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-pharm.com'>1 3 array buy drug market</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->to  consume more. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://cialisbuysale.com'>30mg cialis</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Both wealth and <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil cheap</a>  borrowing reversed themselves substantially in 2008.&#160; This was a <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand</a>  shift  that was not reflected at  all in Mr. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-cialis.com'>add cialis drug link</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://antibiotics-cheap.com'>buy generic antibiotics</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Silver’s <a href="http://pillshopping.net/">pain pills online no prescription</a> <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buy cheap propecia</a>   (or my) prediction model. </p>
<p>There is no doubt that the loss of wealth made people feel much poorer <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis</a>  internet</a>  and caused them to become much more frugal in many <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex buy</a>  ways. I know I feel poorer, even though my measured income didn&#8217;t change much, and I certainly  am driving less because of it. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://accutanebuysale.com'>accutane education legal</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
<p>Because <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buyviagra | buy cialis overseas <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.com">cheap buy acomplia</a>  | buy levitra drugs</a>  wealth accumulation hasn’t varied greatly over time, It may be hard statistically to tease the wealth effects on consumption of gasoline out of the data, but common sense <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  says that it wouldn&#8217;t take much of a wealth effect to explain the drop in gasoline consumption in January, 2009. </p>
<p>Mr. Silver’s oversight reflects a broad problem with economic models in general: they are good at “predicting” the past periods <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">price levitra</a>  from which their parameter values were derived, but they fail at crucial times. These crucial times are when times are not “normal” and the relations of the past no longer hold. </p>
<p>This “failure at crucial times” was most certainly true of the statistical <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxil online</a> <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy real viagra without prescription | buy cialis fast shipping | low price levitra</a>   models <a href="http://online-drug-buy.com/order-zoloft-online-en.html">Buy zoloft</a>  and estimations that gave all of the financial firms such confidence that they had virtually eliminated risks through use of esoteric derivative instruments. We all know now that this sense <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">price diflucan</a>  of <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levaquin prescription</a>  assurance was misguided <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra</a>   in the extreme. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmacy-cipro.com'>action cipro</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The latest estimate is that over $4 trillion of supposedly low-risk debt will have to be written <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>  off, with worldwide ramifications with which we are all now all <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy penicillin</a>  too  well aware. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://drug-orlistat.com'>diet orlistat pill prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></p>
<p>The lesson is: When you are basing decisions on some model based on the past, don’t rely on it to  predict the future accurately. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://orderantibiotic.com/item.php?group_id=51&#038;id=5184'>cefixime suprax</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Experience, intuition, and common sense need to  be brought to  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
<div style='position:absolute;top:-200px;left:-200px;'><a href='http://pharmprescription.com'>buy doxycycline without prescription</a></div>
<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->bear as well.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://roylat.com/2009/05/nate-silver-too-optimistic-about-americans-turning-away-from-cars/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

