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		<title>Paul Volcker&#8217;s Influence Rises</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2010/01/paul-volckers-influence-rises/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2010/01/paul-volckers-influence-rises/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jan 2010 22:13:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Obama had Paul Volcker at his side when he announced his new plan to regulate the big banks. This is a big deal. It may signal the beginning of the end for the of reign of Larry Summers and Treasury Secretary Geithner over Obama’s Levitra Professional economic and financial policies. By giving the big banks [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Obama had Paul Volcker at his side when he announced his new plan to regulate the big banks. This is a big deal. It may signal the beginning of the end for the of reign of Larry Summers and Treasury Secretary Geithner over Obama’s <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Levitra Professional">Levitra Professional</a>  economic and financial policies. </p>
<p>By giving the big banks every possible bailout <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online | where to buy cialis | order online levitra</a>  with no concern for cost to taxpayers, Geithner, Summers, and Fed Chairman Bernanke, ignited a firestorm of popular anger – much of which got <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">viagera</a> <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>   directed toward Obama – and rightfully so. </p>
<p>Volcker, who <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/">Cialis for sale</a>  was initially appointed as Fed Chairman by President Carter but whose real influence came under Reagan, broke the back of the growing inflation of the 1960’s (that doubled prices in that decade) by  raising short-term interest rates to unprecedented levels. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> This was the opposite of the zero-interest rate policy of Bernanke – and the effects on bank profits was opposite also. In the end, though, Volcker came to be regarded by the financial community <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis internet</a>  as a <a href="http://loanscreditandinsurance.info/images/index.php">can you buy viagra in stores</a>  hero.</p>
<p>Volcker has been a strong critic of letting banks get too big to fail and using that status to take risks that imperial financial <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,flyer/date,2060-09-01/">cialis normal dose</a>  stability of the world – with  the banks reaping  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><h5>Financial Regulation</h5>
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<h3><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2215505420100122">Bank plan highlight&#8217;s Volcker&#8217;s <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxicillin amoxil</a>  new clout</a></strong></h3>
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<h5>Related News</h5>
<p>* Volcker had been outspoken on &quot;too big to fail&quot; concern</p>
<p>* Ex-Fed chief consulting about bank plan with lawmakers</p>
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<p>WASHINGTON, Jan 22 (Reuters) &#8211; When President Barack Obama launched a fight with Wall Street by announcing a new U.S. plan to limit banks&#8217; size, the man standing <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">generic levaquin</a>  at his side was former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.</p>
<p>Volcker&#8217;s new clout on the White House economic team was on full display as the 6-foot-7-inch longtime adviser took the choice spot next to Obama, who named his proposal to restrict bank trading activities &quot;the Volcker Rule.&quot;</p>
<p>The 6-foot-1 Obama referred to Volcker as &quot;this tall guy behind me.&quot;</p>
<p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and senior economic adviser Lawrence Summers &#8212; who attended the announcement but at a greater distance from the president &#8212; still wield a tremendous amount <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra jelly">Kamagra jelly</a>  of power.</p>
<p>Volcker, who commands respect on  Wall Street and among both Democrats and Republicans, is seeing a resurgence of his influence after venting frustrations to friends that he had been left out in the cold when it came to economic decision-making at the White House. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The 82-year-old Volcker was one of Obama&#8217;s most influential advisers during his 2008 <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">buy merck propecia</a>  presidential campaign and now chairs a panel of outside economic advisers to the White House.</p>
<p>He had rarely been seen in Washington since the start of the Obama administration and made no secret of a difference in opinion with the White House <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount </a>  over how to deal with the problem of &quot;too big to fail&quot; financial firms.</p>
<p>Volcker&#8217;s <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin buy</a>  fear, shared by some other economists, is that newly consolidated U.S. banks might engage in reckless behavior on the belief that the government would never allow them to fail because of their sheer size. Such risky activity could put the financial  system at risk of another crisis, these economists say. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Asked by the New York Times <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil cheap</a>  in October about reports he was losing influence with the Obama White House, Volcker retorted that he &quot;did not have influence to start with.&quot;</p>
<p>That made Volcker&#8217;s presence at the announcement <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">buy ampicillin cheap</a>  all the more significant to underscoring Obama&#8217;s commitment to push the new regulatory approach that Wall Street appears set to fiercely oppose.</p>
<p>&quot;Volcker being there was huge,&quot; said Simon Johnson, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology and a former chief economist at the International Monetary <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Viagra online</a>  Fund.</p>
<p>The bank announcement elated many of Obama&#8217;s liberal supporters, <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">online pharmacy</a> <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>   who have welcomed his tougher rhetoric in recent weeks toward the banking executives he referred to in December as &quot;fat <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online ampicillin</a>  cats.&quot;</p>
<p>Geithner and Summers, who worked together at Treasury during the Clinton <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra on line</a>  administration, have been criticized by some liberal supporters of Obama and view them as too cozy with Wall Street.</p>
<p>Legislation in 1999 tearing <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy Viagra online</a>  down the Depression-era Glass-Steagall law separating commercial and  investment  banking passed under their watch. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Volcker, who has been consulting on Capitol Hill about Obama&#8217;s bank proposal, could be an asset to the administration in selling the proposal, said Johnson, who shared Volcker&#8217;s frustrations that the administration <a href="http://job-killer.com/images/">cheap levitra generic</a>  <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxicillin</a>  had not moved earlier to limit  the size of banks, which get an implicit subsidy in  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>&quot;Volcker carries a cache that is unparalleled,&quot; said Johnson, <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buying propecia</a>  <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy generic cytotec</a>  brand online</a>  noting the former central banker&#8217;s role in breaking the back of double-digit inflation in the early 1980s &#8212; a victory that came despite a <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">buy amoxicillin</a>    huge popular backlash against the economic pain brought on by his interest-rate increases. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>RIFT WITH GEITHNER?</p>
<p>In an indication of a possible rift, financial industry sources told Reuters on Thursday <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">cheap <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">price <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-antibiotics-pills.html">Buy Antibiotics medications</a>  diflucan</a>  amoxil online</a>  of some reservations <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Kamagra jelly">Kamagra jelly</a>  Geithner <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://onedollar.mm-project.com/images/">purchase levitra online</a>  Professional&#8221;>Viagra Professional</a>  had expressed behind the scenes about the new bank plan, which was not included in the original <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  plan on financial regulatory reform that the administration unveiled last June.</p>
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<p>Aides said Obama personally felt strongly about moving ahead on curbs on the banks, in part because <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">online pharmacy <a href="http://onliendrugs.com/buy/doxycycline.html">Doxycycline Online</a>  no prescription</a>  of concerns about risk-taking by banks after they returned to profitability in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">cheap acomplia</a>  meltdown.</p>
<p>White House officials played down any talk of Geithner and Summers <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra Soft">Kamagra Soft</a>  losing influence.</p>
<p>A trademark of Obama&#8217;s management style, which was apparent during the deliberations over his Afghanistan strategy, is to encourage the airing of dissenting views and then to work with his advisers <a href="http://provigilbuysale.com">Buy cheap online Provigil</a>  to  arrive  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>&quot;He is concerned to make sure <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">best viagra online</a>  that he&#8217;s exposed to all points of view,&quot; Summers told a small group of reporters in a briefing last week when <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis now</a>  asked to describe Obama&#8217;s decision-making process. &quot;So he wants to hear disagreement with things that he has said or advisers who have different perspectives to share those differing perspectives.&quot;</p>
<p>Also emerging as a bigger player in shaping economic policy is Vice President Joseph Biden, who devoted much of his time last year to helping to oversee the $787 billion stimulus program that Obama  signed into law last February. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Biden feels &quot;passionately about the same set of problems&quot; of firms becoming too <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">generic nolvadex</a>  big to fail and  helped to shape the proposal on banks, said one White House official. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>(Editing by <a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&amp;n=howard.goller&amp;">Howard Goller</a>) </p>
</blockquote>
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		<title>All That Glitters Is Gold</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:56:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I haven’t written about investments for some time, feeling that I have no better insights than anyone else about what is sensible to do in th 30mg cialis is environment. The equity markets seem overvalued, the bond markets face at some point a rise in interest rates that will be bad for bond prices, and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven’t written about investments for some time, feeling that I have no better insights than anyone else about what  is sensible to do in th <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->is environment. The equity markets seem overvalued, the bond markets face at some point a rise in interest rates that will be bad for bond prices, and commodities seem to be predicting a resurgent world economy that is by no means <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,flyer/date,2060-08-01/">cialis <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand price</a>  prescriptions</a>  certain.</p>
<p>What seems to be continuing its long-term strength is gold. Now, I for <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis Jelly">Cialis Jelly</a>  one, have always felt that investing in gold is like shooting craps, because gold has  no intrinsic value. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Now, I’m feeling that gold may be a reasonable place to put some of one’s money. The primary reason for this is that the US and other countries have “printed” so much money (in their efforts to prevent the financial collapse) that the future value of currency relative to gold seems likely to continue to fall (so the price of gold in currency terms will rise). </p>
<p>Aside from this argument, gold has quite steadily risen in the last year (as well as previous years) even when events would argue that it should be declining. <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription</a>  <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">prescription drugs online no prescription</a>  This suggests growing underlying demand.</p>
<p>David Rosenberg, who is a great skeptic about equities and the economy, puts the case for gold well:</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://links.ems.gluskinsheff.net/a/l.x?T=kfnbjlmpephielndjlnojidm&amp;M=4">GOLD GLITTERS</a></p>
<p>While the gold purchase by India’s central bank is widely viewed as the trigger point for the latest jump in the gold price, there are good reasons why bullion is in bull mode. It comes down to a fiscal policy in the U.S.A.  that will stop at nothing to ensure  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Even with a fiscal deficit north of 10% of GDP, the article from yesterday’s WSJ that was titled Job-Creation <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">Ampicillin cheap online</a>  Panel Leery of  Spending really resonated. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> To wit:</p>
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<p>So the strategy remains on “short-term” tactics as opposed to any long-run measures to improve the capital stock, enhance skills and training, <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy generic cytotec</a>  bolster  education and enhance productivity growth. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> But of course the other problem is who will pay for this fiscal largesse, and the answer is that nobody —the Fed will simply monetize the debt. More dollars will be printed and that is bullish for gold whose production is in secular decline.</p>
<p>Then  we saw this article on the WSJ yesterday too, titled Labor Gets Boost In Skies, on Rails. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->began under Reagan administration in the early 1980s. To wit:</p>
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<p>Another reason for our bullish stance on gold is that we are not seeing the onset of a secular bull market in equities like the one we saw in the early 1980s.</p>
<p>The National Mediation Board wants to make it easier for thousands of airline and railway workers to unionize under the Railway Labor Act by seeking to junk a 75-year old election rule, according to a proposal published Monday in the Federal register. The move comes after a White House appointment shifted the balance of the government agency’s three-person   board. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Linda Puchala, a former flight attendant union leader, was selected to replace Read Van de Water, a former Northwest Airlines lobbyist, earlier this year.”</p>
<p>To reiterate, this is not the onset of a sustainable secular bull market in equities as we had coming off the fundamental lows of prior bear phases, <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra Gold">Kamagra Gold</a>  such as August <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levaquin</a>  1982, when:</p>
<p>• Dividend yields were 6%, not sub 2% currently       <br />• Price-to-earnings multiples were 8x, not 26x       <br />• The market traded at book value, not over two times book       <br />• Inflation and bond yields were in double digits and headed down in the future, not near-zero and only headed higher       <br />• The stock market competed with 18% cash rates, not zero, and as such had a much higher hurdle to clear    <a href="http://onlinepharmacy-drugs.net/buy/viagra.html">Buy Viagra Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>     <br />• Sentiment was universally bearish; hardly the case today       <br />• Global trade flows were in the process of accelerating as barriers were taken down; today, we are seeing trade flows recede as frictions, disputes and tariffs become the order of the day       <br />• Unionization rates were on a secular decline; today labor power is clearly on the rise       <br />• A Reagan-led movement was afoot to reduce the role of government with attendant productivity gains in the future; as opposed to the infiltration by the public sector into the capital markets, union sector, economy and <a href="http://over50losingweight.com/images/">424 buy viagra | where to buy cialis without prescription | order online levitra</a>  of course, <a <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra soft</a>  href=&#8221;http://onlineacompliacheap.net&#8221;>buy cheap acomplia</a>  the realm of CEO compensation</p>
<p>FINAL WORD ON GOLD</p>
<p>Gold <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">online amoxil</a>  broke <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">low <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">cheap amoxil</a>  price levitra</a>  out to a new high yesterday of $1,084/oz <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">online lasix</a>  (and <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">buy generic levitra</a>  continues to rally today). It did this despite the S&amp;P 500 managing to tick up two points and despite the DXY index actually eking out an 8bps rise to 76.3. This is NOT just a U.S. dollar story — have a look at what bullion is doing in Euro terms. Very impressive. This is a broadly based breakout and that means a durable secular bull market.       <br />Looking at the growth <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin online</a>  rates in fiat currency that central banks are creating to stimulate their economies and the amount of bullion that would be necessary to back up this massive global monetary infusion suggests that gold can at least double if not triple from here. If you missed the first 4x runup from the $250/oz lows a decade ago, don’t worry about <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">generic female viagra</a>  it. It’s like worrying about how you would have missed the first half of the rally in the S&amp;P 500 from 1982 to 1992 when the index was at 400 and still had 300% to go before finally peaking out and sputtering at the 1500+ highs eight  years later. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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</blockquote>
<p>Another investment source, Prieur du Plessis, who I respect, makes the case for gold from another perspective:</p>
<blockquote><h4><a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/05/gold-bullion-surging-in-all-currencies/">Gold bullion surging in all currencies</a></h4>
<p>I argued the bull case for gold in <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis soft</a>  my posts over the past few months (see “<a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/07/gold-bullion-regaining-its-shine/">Gold <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">buy merck propecia</a>  bullion  &#8211; regaining its shine <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->?</a>“, <a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/22/gold-bullion-glitters-bright/">“Gold bullion glitters bright”</a> and “<a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/05/gold-bullion-%e2%80%93-challenging-1000/">Gold bullion &#8211; challenging $1,000</a>“. With the gold price scaling fresh peaks and closing in on $1,100, it would certainly seem as if renewed interest <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy <a href="http://femaleviagrabuysale.com">Buy Female Viagra </a>  cialis tablets</a>  in the yellow metal is being stirred up, especially subsequent to the purchase by India’s central bank of 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.</p>
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<p>As printing presses are running at full speed to produce ever-increasing quantities of fiat money as governments engineer the greatest <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">amoxicillin</a>  asset price reflation in human history &#8211; and the US greenback is heading South &#8211; the longer-term fundamental case for the yellow metal is arguably positive.</p>
<p>“The gold bug has caught several big hedge fund managers this year including John <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Tadacip">Tadacip</a>  Paulson of Paulson &amp; Company, Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors and David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who believe enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the global economy will eventually result in hyperinflation,” said <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/seeing-next-boom-tudor-goes-for-the-gold/">The <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>The gold price is not only making headway in US dollar terms, but also in most major (and minor) currencies  as illustrated by the table and graph below. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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</blockquote>
<blockquote><p>…</p>
<p>The shorter-term technical picture is also looking interesting. This is explained by Adam Hewison of <a href="http://www.ino.com/info/205/CD3194/&amp;dp=0&amp;l=0&amp;campaignid=9">INO.com</a> <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxicillin</a>  who prepared a short technical analysis of gold’s most likely direction and key chart levels. Click <a href="http://www.ino.com/info/474/CD3194/&amp;dp=0&amp;l=0&amp;campaignid=3">here</a> to access the video presentation.</p>
<p>Seasonally, the period from November to December has traditional been good for gold, with average gains ranging from more than 1% to almost 2.5% since 1970.</p>
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<p>Source: Plexus Asset Management</p>
<p>I remain bullish <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">viagra online stores</a>  on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex <a href="http://meetyourdate.info/images/index.php">buy viagra cheap online | buy cialis online 32 | generic levitra buy online</a>  generic</a>  inflation  pressures down the road. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the metal only do so on pullbacks. </strong>(Emphasis added.)</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/05/gold-bullion-surging-in-all-currencies/">Full Article</a></p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Plessis’s article, because even thought the trend is strongly upward, there is a lot of volatility in price. Buying now, after such a sharp rise entails the risk of a fall. On the other hand, gold fever seems to be spreading quite broadly, which could lead to near-term sharp rises.</p>
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<p>A final warning: my timing has been less than sterling in the last year; <a href="http://onliendrugs.com/buy/revia.html">Buy Revia Online</a>  so my coming to feel gold is a reasonable investment (among a set of relatively bleak choices) could be a good contrary sign.</p>
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		<title>The Sad State of Our Country</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/10/the-sad-state-of-our-country/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/10/the-sad-state-of-our-country/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:25:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Default Swaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Restructuring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Taxpayers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Last night I watch Bill Moyers Journal via the internet. The first piece interviewed David Simom, creator of “The Wire.” His realistic view of the quagmire of drugs/ghettos/crime/corruption had such a ring of Knowing that I found myself nodding and shaking my head again and again. If you are a “Wire” fan, as I am, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Last night I watch Bill Moyers Journal via the internet. The first piece interviewed David Simom, creator of “The Wire.” His realistic view of the quagmire of drugs/ghettos/crime/corruption had such a ring of Knowing that I found myself nodding and shaking my head again and again. If you are a “Wire” fan, as I am, or if you have never seen it, you will be informed, infuriated, and warmed by <a href="http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10022009/watch.html">this interview.</a>&#160; I highly recommend it for its gritty insights into the reality of “the War on Drugs.”</p>
<p>I followed this doubleheader program with the following interview with Simon Johnson, who I previously recommended here, and U.S. Representative March Kaptur, who totally captured my heart. It was a perfect complement to the first program, making it all too clear why the ghetto dwellers are left to rot when not thrown in prison. If the bankers care not at all about those whites in middle America who are suffering while they fatten up on the public purse, what possibility is there that we will truly address the failure of our society/economy to provide a meaningful life for the black and brown of the ghettos?</p>
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<p>I haven’t posted anything on the financial crisis for quite some time, because the main flows have not changed since March or April 2009, when the Obama Administration made abundantly clear they were going to continue to turn the firehose of public money onto the banking sector until big firms were flush with cash and profit. The flow continues and the banks are now flush – while the rest of the economy is in the sh__house. </p>
<p>The anatomy of this scandal is laid out in depressing detail in Barry Ritholz’s book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Bailout-Nation-Corrupted-Economy-Revised/dp/0470520388/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1255345962&amp;sr=8-1"><em>Bailout Nation</em></a><em>.</em>&#160; He also today posted the Moyer interview with Johnson and Kaptur in convenient format, including the transcript.</p>
<p>The interview ends with this exchange. If nothing else, you should watch the <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  end of the interview so that you can see the expression on Johnson’s face as he says, “I’m skeptical.” The expression leaves no doubt of the depth of his skepticism.</p>
<blockquote><p>MARCY KAPTUR: I don’t think President Obama has the right  people  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->around him. The poor man inherited a total mess, globally and domestically. I think some of the people that he trusted haven’t delivered. I urge him to get new generals. It’s time.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Louis the Fourteenth of France, a very powerful monarch, was famous for having many bad  things, <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> you know, happen under his rule. And people would always say, ‘If only Louis the Fourteenth knew. I’m sure he doesn’t know. If we could just tell him, he’d sort it out.’ You know. I’m skeptical.</p>
</blockquote>
<h4><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/kaptur-johnson-on-bill-moyers/">Kaptur &amp; Johnson on <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">real viagra online</a>  Bill Moyers</a></h4>
<p><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/kaptur-johnson-on-bill-moyers/email/"><img alt="Email this post" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/themes/thebigpicture/images/buttons/email_this.gif" border="0" /></a> <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/kaptur-johnson-on-bill-moyers/print/"><img alt="Print this post" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/themes/thebigpicture/images/buttons/print_page.gif" border="0" /></a></p>
<p><small>By Barry Ritholtz &#8211; October 11th, 2009, 8:57AM</small></p>
<p>Just over a year after economic calamity brought promises of reform from Washington, has Wall Street really changed? Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson and US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) report on the  state of the economy. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><em>click for video </em>    <br /><a href="http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/10092009/watch.html"><img title="moyers" height="402" alt="moyers" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/moyers.png" width="494" /></a></p>
<p>In Michael Moore’s new film Capitalism: A Love Story, Congresswoman Kaptur says there has been a financial coup d’etat, and that Wall Street – rather than Congress – is in charge.</p>
<p>October 9, 2009</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Welcome to the JOURNAL.</p>
<p>I sat in a theater packed with passionate moviegoers, every one of them seemingly aghast at the Wall Street skullduggery exposed by Michael Moore in his latest film. It’s called ‘Capitalism: A Love Story.’ Here’s an excerpt:</p>
<p>MICHAEL MOORE: We’re here to get the money back for the American People. Do you think it’s too harsh to call what has happened here a coup d’état? A financial coup d’état?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: That’s, no. Because I think that’s what’s happened. Um, a financial coup d’état?</p>
<p>MICHAEL MOORE: Yeah.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: I could agree with that. I could agree with that. Because the people here really aren’t in charge. Wall Street is in charge.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: That’s the progressive Representative from Ohio, Marcy Kaptur, she’s with me now. She has a Masters from the University of Michigan, did graduate study at M.I.T. and still lives in the same house in the Toledo working class neighborhood where she grew up.</p>
<p>She’s in her 14th term in Congress, the longest-serving <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">cheap acomplia</a>  Democratic woman in the history of the House, and she’s an outspoken <a href="http://jobs-recruitment.info/images/">buy cialis generic online</a>  financial watchdog on three important Committees: Appropriations, Budget and Oversight and Government Reform.</p>
<p>Also with me is a familiar face to viewers of this broadcast. Simon Johnson is the former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. He now teaches Global Economics and Management at M.I.T.’s Sloan School of Management. He’s one of the founders of the website Baselinescenario.com. I check it out daily <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">buy <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy cheap amoxicillin</a>  amoxil</a>  for Simon’s take on the economic and financial crisis.</p>
<p>It’s been a year since the great collapse and both my guests are well equipped to assess what’s happened since then. Welcome to you both.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Thank you.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Let’s look at this story that I just read from the Associated Press this week about how Treasury Secretary Geithner is on the phone several times a day with a select group of very powerful Wall Street bankers, especially Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs. He will talk to them when Members of Congress have to leave a message on the answering machine. And these are the bankers who helped bring on this calamity and who are now  benefiting from it. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> What does that say to you?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: That says to me that Wall Street and Washington is a circuit. And because Mr.Geithner headed the New York Fed that that historic relationship, unfortunately, <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra online price</a>  continues. And it gives them special access and special power to influence policy.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well, I think it really tells you how the system works. The system is based on access and is based on what on Wall Street shaping Washington’s view of what’s important.</p>
<p>It’s the people who are very close to Mr. Geithner before when he was the head of the New York Fed. Before he became Treasury Secretary. These people have unparalleled access. And in a crisis, when everything is up for grabs, you don’t know what’s going on, the people who will take your phone calls, right, in government and people who are going to be standing in the oval office, making the key decisions. That’s  the heart of  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the system. That’s the heart of how you get your agenda through, by changing their worldview.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: And they also move people. In other words, Mr. Geithner came from the New <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.com">cheap acomplia</a>  York Fed, he came from Wall Street, and he becomes Secretary of the Treasury. His predecessor, Mr. Paulson, came <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">proscar</a>  from Goldman Sachs, and he becomes Secretary of Treasury. You can go back decades, and you will see that there’s this revolving door between Wall Street and Washington. And I recently asked Chairman Bernanke of the Federal Reserve, ‘Let me ask you a question. Would you be willing to consider a reform where the Cleveland Fed would have equal power to the New York Fed, in terms of how the Fed is run?’ And his answer was, ‘No.’</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: And why did you ask that question?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Because I think we need to democratize the Fed. I think that my region of the country, which is suffering so heavily from these decisions that were made by Wall Street and Washington, we need to have voice. And our bankers, who didn’t do the bad things, our community bankers, who are having to pay higher fees shouldn’t be treated this way. Why should the people who did it right be penalized for those that did it wrong?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Remember Wall Street convinced us that trading derivatives without any regulation, that all these kind of crazy housing loans, which are very dangerous for consumers. That all of this was sensible. All of this was a good way to sustain growth.  That was wrong. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> That wasn’t it. That wasn’t that’s not the end of <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy levitra online cheap</a>  the story. In the crisis, when things got bad, they also convinced the key people in Washington that they, the bankers, the big bankers, <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cheap cytotec</a>  the Wall Street bankers, who are really responsible for all of these problems, they should be saved. Not just their banks, but they individually and should be saved. Their jobs, their pensions, all their perks. It’s an extraordinary moment.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: You asked on your blog, just this week, a question I want to put to you now, and to both of you. You asked, ‘Does this crisis reflect something about the disproportionate influence of a few incompetent investment bankers or a deeper breakdown of capitalism?” What’s your answer to your own question?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well, definitely, this disproportionate influence of some fairly incompetent bankers, that’s for sure. That’s what we’re seeing today. That’s what we’ve seen over the past few months. I think on the issue on the issue of capitalism, we have to take this very seriously. To me, at least, the financial part  of our capitalism is very seriously broken. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>SIMON JOHNSON: They persuaded us to allow them to take incredible risks. And then they pushed all the downside, all those losses onto us, the taxpayer, at the same time as really hammering hard all the people who were duped, essentially, into taking out loans. People lost their  houses. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>BILL MOYERS: Why?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: That’s the.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Why is it going to how is it going to be worse?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well, there’s four we used to have a dozen or so substantial big banks, now we’re down to four. Now we’re down to four big banks that have a lot more market power and a lot more political power. They <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">online nolvadex</a>  make the campaign contributions. They shape agendas in ways that are that are really quite scary. If you look, for example, at derivatives. And the debate on whether or not derivatives should be regulated in a sensible manner. And at this point, actually, the Obama Administration has is leaning in a better direction. But the big financial players are absolutely  against any kind of sensible regulation. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Let me give you a reality from ground zero in Toledo, Ohio. Our foreclosures have gone up 94  percent. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>MARCY KAPTUR: I said, ‘Well, give me the top one.’ They said, ‘J.P. Morgan Chase.’ I went back to Washington that night. And one of my colleagues said, ‘You want to come to dinner?’ I said, ‘Well, what is it?’ He said, ‘Well, it’s a meeting with Jamie Dimon, the head of J.P. Morgan Chase.’ I said, <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">medicine without prescription</a>  ‘Wow, yes. I really do.’ So, I go to this meeting in a fancy hotel, fancy dinner, and everyone is complimenting him. I mean, it was just like a love fest.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: They finally got to me, and my point to ask a question. I said, ‘Well, I don’t want to speak out of turn here, Mr. Dimon.’ I said, ‘But your company is the largest forecloser in my district. And our Realtors just said to me this morning that your people don’t return phone calls.’ I said, ‘We can’t do work outs.’ And he looked at me, he said, ‘Do you know that I talk to your Governor all the time?’ He said, ‘Our company employs 10,000 people in Ohio.’</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: And I’m thinking, ‘What is that? A threat?’ And he said, ‘I speak to the Mayor of Columbus.’ I said, <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">buy cheap viagra</a>  ‘Why don’t you come further north?’ I said, ‘Toledo, Cleveland, where the foreclosures are just skyrocketing.’ He said, ‘Well, we’ll have someone call you.’ And he gave me a card. And they never did. For two weeks, we tried to reach them. And finally, I was on a national news show. And I told this story. They called within ten minutes. And they said, ‘Oh, we’ll work with you. We’ll try to do some workouts in your area.’</p>
<p>We planned the first one after working with them for weeks and weeks and weeks. Their people never showed up. And it was a Friday. Our people had taken off work. They’d driven from all these locations to come. We kept calling J.P. Morgan Chase saying, ‘Where’s your person? Where’s your person?’ And they finally sent somebody down from Detroit by 3:00 in the afternoon. But out people had been waiting all morning and a lot of people that’s how they treat our people.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: You did a remarkable thing on the floor of the House recently. And I want to show my audience a clip of a speech in which you urge people to break the law.</p>
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<p>BILL MOYERS: Wow. You are urging them to resist the law when the Sheriff shows up to throw them out of their home.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: I’m saying that they deserve justice, too. And that the scales of justice in front of the Supreme Court are supposed to be balanced, <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/">Viagra discount</a>  and they’re not. And that possession is 90 percent of the law. And that you have legal rights, as a home owner. You have a right to legal representation. You have a right before the judge to have the mortgage note produced by whomever in the system  has it. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Judge Boyko of Cleveland threw out six cases, because when the foreclosures came up, the financial institutions couldn’t produce the note. Our people deserve their day in court.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: What’s your explanation as an economist. And a student of this financial system as to why the banks are taking so <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">generic lasix</a>  long to help the homeowners when Congress has allocated funds for that purpose?</p>
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<p>SIMON JOHNSON: These are very smart, very profit-oriented people. I can assure you, if there was money in it for them. They would be negotiating you know, very various kinds of re-schedulings of these loans. They don’t want to do it. They it’s not in their interest. It’s not where the money is. Follow the money. The money is where Jamie Dimon says it is. Jamie Dimon says, ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet,’ in terms of his lobby in Washington. He’s on the record as saying, he’s this is his big initiative right now.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: To?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: To spend more time <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">levitra online</a>  in Washington, more time cultivating all those relationships on Capital Hill and in the executive branch. And you know what else Jamie Dimon said to his shareholders? To his shareholders meeting this year, he said, with regard to 2008, the year of what we regard as the greatest financial crisis, an absolute human tragedy. He said, Jamie Dimon said to his shareholders, ‘This was perhaps our best year ever.’</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Think about what these banks have done. They have taken very imprudent behavior, irresponsible. They have really gambled, all right? And in many cases, been involved in fraudulent activity. And then when they lost, they shifted their losses to the taxpayer. So, if you look at an instrumentality like the F.H.A., the Federal Housing Administration. They used to insure one of every 50 mortgages in the country. Now it’s one out of four.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Because what they’re doing is they’re taking their mistakes and they’re dumping them on the taxpayer. So, you and I, and the long term debt of our country and our children and grandchildren. It’s all at risk because of their behavior. We aren’t reigning them in. The laws of Congress passed last year in terms of housing, were hollow. Were hollow.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Foreclosures in my area have gone up 94 percent. And we <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">Buy cheap Levaquin</a>  know the basic rules of economics. Housing leads us to recovery. Housing was the precipitating factor in this economic downturn. Unless you dealing with the housing sector, you aren’t going to have growth in this economy</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: You’re both saying the financial world, the banks in particular, are putting their interests above anybody else’s interest. And they’ve got the power in the executive <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis cheap</a>  branch, and the Congress to back up <a href="http://cialisbuysale.com">Buy Cialis </a>  their demands, right?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: This is capitalism, Bill. That’s what they’re supposed to do. They represent their shareholders, they’re appointed by the board of directors to make money for their shareholders. And the way they think that <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">where to buy cialis</a>  they can best make money is to shape the regulatory rules around housing around derivatives, around all everything we used to have that kept the financial sector under control. Has all been, you know, washed away, one way or another, by their efforts, right? They make money in the boom, that <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy cialis fast shipping </a>  Professional&#8221;>Viagra Professional</a>  way. And when and when bad things happen, they shove all the downside onto the taxpayer. That’s what they’re doing their job.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: It’s socialism for the big banks. Because they’ve basically taken their mistakes and they’ve put it on the taxpayer. That’s the government. That’s socialism. That isn’t capitalism.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well people some people call that lemon socialism. So, when it turns out to be a lemon, it’s you it’s yours, the taxpayer. When it turns out to be good, it’s mine, I’m Wall Street.</p>
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<p>BILL MOYERS: Why have we not had the reform that we all knew was being was needed and being demanded a year ago?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: I think the opportunity the short term opportunity was missed. There was an opportunity that the Obama Administration had. President Obama campaigned on a message of change. I voted for him. I supported him. And I believed in this message. And I thought that the time for change, for the financial sector, was absolutely upon us. This was abundantly apparent <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>  by the inauguration in January of this year.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: And Rahm Emanuel, the President’s Chief of Staff has a saying. He’s widely known for saying, ‘Never let a good crisis go to waste’. Well, the crisis is over, Bill. The crisis in the financial sector, not for people who own homes, but the crisis for the big banks is substantially over. And it was completely wasted. The Administration refused to break the power of the big banks, when they had the opportunity, earlier this year. And the regulatory reforms they are now pursuing will turn out to be, in my opinion, and I do follow this day to day, you know. These reforms will turn out to be essentially meaningless.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: When Lincoln ran into trouble, during the Civil War, he got new generals. He brought in Grant. I hope that President Obama will bring in some new <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/bactrim.html">Buy Bactrim Online</a>  generals on the financial front.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Should Geithner be fired? And Summers be fired?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: I don’t think that any individuals who had their hands on creating this mess should be in charge of cleaning it up. I honestly don’t think they’re capable of it.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Let me show you an excerpt from the speech President Obama made on Wall Street last month, September. Here is the challenge he laid down to the bankers.</p>
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<p>PRESIDENT OBAMA: We will not go back to the days of reckless behavior and unchecked excess at the heart of this crisis, where too many were motivated only by the appetite for quick kills and bloated bonuses. Those on Wall Street cannot resume taking <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra Soft">Kamagra Soft</a>  risks without regard for consequences, and expect that next time, American taxpayers will be there to break their fall.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: A reality check. Not one CEO of a Wall Street bank was there to hear the President. What do you make of that?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Arrogance. Because they have no fear for the government anymore. They have no respect for the President, which I find absolutely extraordinary and shocking. All right? And I think they have no not an ounce of gratitude to the American people, who saved them, their jobs, and the way they run the world.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: In the scheme of things, it is the Congress, and the government that’s supposed to stand up to the powerful, <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">online pharmacy levitra</a>  organized interests, for the people in Toledo, who can’t come to Washington. Who are working or trying to keep their homes or trying to pay their health bills. What’s happened to our government?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Congress has really shut down. I’m disappointed in both chambers, because wouldn’t you think, with the largest financial crisis in American history, in the largest transfer of wealth from the American people to the biggest banks in this country, that every committee of Congress would be involved in hearings, that this would be on the news, that people would be engaged in this. What we’re seeing is– tangential hearings on very arcane aspects of financial reform. For example, now we’re going to have a consumer protection agency to help the poor consumer, who doesn’t understand all of this, rather than hearings on the fundamental new architecture of reforming the American financial system, so that we have prudent lending, capital accumulation at the local level again; that we encourage savings and limit debt by the American people. Our country needs this. Those aren’t the hearings that are happening.</p>
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<p>I’ve been one of the Members of Congress trying to increase by ten times the agents to get at the justice issues for the American people. For companies that have been hurt. For shareholders that have been hurt. Our government isn’t doing it. That it’s very easy to look at the budget of the F.B.I. in mortgage fraud and securities fraud and say, ‘How serious is the government?’ And until those numbers increase, we will not begin to get justice.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: If we can’t get reform out of this calamity, when can we get it then, given the realities you have both described?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: That’s the <a href="http://igot-rippedoff.com/images/">buy cialis pharmacy</a>  worry, Bill, right? And I’m very serious. I’m very serious about this. Which is, you know, does it take- we have elements of the Great Depression now, in terms of the impact on people, okay? I mean, people losing their jobs, their homes, their health insurance.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Even though Wall Street says, ‘Well, we’re past the crisis now. Profits at the banks are up. And Wall Street- and the stock market is stirring.’</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: We’re out of the financial part of the crisis, we’re not out of the human part of the crisis.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: And we’re not out of the housing crisis. The President ought to take these empty units and require his Administration to broker rental agreements with families, so they’re not kicked out. Property values are dropping, all over the country, sometimes by as much as 25 <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">buy ampicilin online</a>  percent. You can do a 30 year mortgage, even a 40 year mortgage, where people have a job or even unemployment benefits, if they’re going to get them for another year. Well, my goodness, you can keep them in their home. Empty units do no one any good.</p>
<p>Let me tell you what happened in- where I live in Toledo, Ohio. The house next to me was foreclosed. And so, I called, the other day, a little plaque appeared on the door of this house. And it said, ‘$500 down, $300 a month rent.’ I said, ‘What is that, a land contract deal? What’s going on there?’ So I called the number. I get a repossession dealer in South Carolina. I said, ‘Hello sir, what’s your name?’ ‘Johnny,’ or something. I said, ‘And what’s your address?’ He gave me a P.O. Box number. I said, ‘Now listen,’ I said, ‘Your property is bringing down the value of our property because you’re on our heels.’ ‘Lady, I get these things from the bank.’ And he said, ‘You know, we try to unload ‘em. What are you going to offer me?’ This is what <a href="http://onedollar.mm-project.com/images/">cheapest place to buy viagra online | buy cialis jelly | purchase levitra online</a>  he’s saying to me over the telephone. I don’t think a single one of my neighbors knows that that home is now in possession of a group in South Carolina that could care less about it.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Just to reinforce this point. Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac are now government agencies. Okay? They not only hold a lot of mortgages that are in default or close to default. They’re also responsible for enormous amount of the new loans- that are being originated anywhere in the country, actually. They work for the President. The kinds of proposals that Congresswoman Kaptur’s put in forth are entirely reasonable. And can be implemented by the executive branch, hopefully with Congress on board, certainly at the urging of certain members of Congress, obviously. But they can do it.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: So Simon, go ahead- you were saying- what is it that scares you? You’re worried?</p>
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<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Another Great Depression. Right? If you don’t fix the financial system, Bill. If you allow them to have the same attitude. If you- if you actually allow them to increase their economic power, their ability to take risk, and their belief that they can shove the losses onto the government. And that’s why they didn’t show up to President Obama’s speech on Wall Street.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Why don’t they respect him?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Because they think that the next time they won’t even have to ask. They’ll just be given the bailout that they want.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Right. That’s been their history. Their bed is feathered. When they messed up during the 1980s, they put their bill through the savings and loans crisis on the American people. $140 billion.</p>
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<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Very good. Most people don’t even know that.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Well, I covered that.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: But that, you know, it opened the flood gates. They go, ‘Oh, we can get away with $140 billion?’ This time how many trillions have they gotten away with? Plus all the deregulatory actions that were taken during the 1990s. I remember when they came to the Congress, when Newt Gingrich became Speaker of the House. And they came down to the Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs Committee, and they took the name off the door. And they changed it to Financial Services. And people began to see that they had money in the bank, and they charged them a fee to cash their own check on their own money. And then fees went up for everything. And the ordinary consumer found, ‘Hey, it’s not so smart to have a savings account, because it costs me more money if I have under $10,000 in the bank, they charge me all this money on my own money.’ They got exactly what they wanted. And so, then all the abuses and the irresponsible and imprudent behavior of the 1990s that led to this, nobody did anything. They just kept opening more floodgates to them. And then with the removal of Glass-Steagall in 1999, which I-</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: That was the rule that kept the investment banks from being owned by banks, right?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: It’s about separating banking and commerce.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Right.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: They said as a country, you know, banks have extraordinary power. They have the power to create money. And decide how much that is worth. They have extraordinary power. And we used to have capital ratios. We need to get back to them. Ten to one. For every dollar in your bank, you <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil cheap</a>  can lend ten. You know what J.P. Morgan did? A hundred to one. And then with derivatives, who knows how much? Glass-Steagall separated banking from commerce, so that we didn’t have these institutions getting too big, getting into too many things. And we just gave them total abandon. And they took it.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well, the final end of the last vestige of Glass-Steagall came in just now in August. Unnoted, but I think very significant. Goldman Sachs, you remember, was an investment bank, a securities company. Not allowed <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-viagra-online.html">Buy Generic Viagra</a>  to be a commercial bank; didn’t have access to the Federal Reserve <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Viagra online</a>  and this ability to tap into the money supply of the country. Until September of last year, when the crisis broke, they were allowed a very short notice to convert to being a bank holding company. This was what saved Goldman Sachs in my opinion. Also Morgan Stanley. Which meant they could stay in the securities business. And they could also have access to the Federal Reserve. In August, just now, they converted to what’s called a  financial holding company. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>BILL MOYERS: Well, and this is what we were talking about earlier, the system. I mean, President Clinton’s Secretary of Treasury, Robert Rubin helps eliminate Glass-Steagall. And then leaves the government and goes to work for? Citicorp?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well Rubin’s a fascinating character. He ran Goldman Sachs, he went into the Clinton White House, then he became Secretary of the Treasury, and it was on his watch that, first of all, Glass-Steagall began to really seriously crumble, and then it was completely swept away- replaced, abolished, really. And then, of course, Rubin goes on after he leaves Treasury, to be the senior guru type figure at Citigroup. And Citigroup is absolutely epicenter of everything that’s gone wrong with our financial system.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: And wasn’t it <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Brand Cialis">Brand Cialis</a>  Robert Rubin the mentor, the guru to both Tim Geithner and Larry Summers?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Absolutely. Both Geithner and Summers advanced to senior positions in the Treasury under Rubin was instrumental in bringing Larry Summers to be President of Harvard, after the Clinton Administration. And according to published new report, he was absolutely key person in making sure that Tim Geithner first went to a senior job at the IMF, and then became President of the New York Fed. And there are unconfirmed reports that Robert Rubin was an essential advisor to then candidate Obama in fall of last year, with <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">buy cheap ampicillin</a>  regard to who he should bring on board as the leadership team on the economic side.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: And you know, looking at it from the heartland, when I look at Wall Street and all their connections into Washington, and I’ve been at it a while now, it’s very disheartening to me, because I know they don’t care about us out there. We’re flyover country for them. And they’re just out to make money.</p>
<p>And I have seen people that I worked with in the Carter White House, who were associated what the bond industry of Wall Street, use their access and create for themselves a money path that today has led them to head organizations like Black Rock, and get private contracts with the Federal Reserve. The over $2 trillion, we <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis</a>  don’t know how much that the Federal Reserve has extended at this point.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: And Black Rock is?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Black Rock is an institution that has gotten the major contract of the Federal Reserve to do the mortgage workouts. And my question is, the very people involved in Black Rock, who’ve gotten these confidential contracts with the Federal Reserve, they were involved on Wall Street in creating the instruments <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/content/view/9/1">cialis en francais</a>  in the first place. So how do we know that they are not covering up their own crime?</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: So, Simon, what happens now? If we’re going to avert a depression and the next calamity, what needs to be done?</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Well, I think you have to keep at it, Bill. I mean, that’s the lesson from previous generations of Americans, who have really confronted entrenched power like this. You have to keep at it. And you mustn’t be satisfied. When the Administration says, ‘Okay,  we fixed it. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Don’t worry. We did some technical tweaking on capital requirements, for example, in the banks.’ You have to say, ‘No, that’s not true. Let’s look at what’s happening, let’s follow it through.’</p>
<p>The muckrakers of today are absolutely essential, I think, to really pushing these banks. And revealing what they’re doing. And by the way, Bill, it’s going to I think it’s going to be a long haul. I think that the economy will start to recover. We’ll get some jobs back. It’s going to be very painful for a lot of people. But other people’s attention is going to drift. It’s a three, five, seven, maybe twelve year cycle. But when it comes back, it will come back  with a vengeance. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> And it will be even, I think, even more devastating, in all likelihood, than what we just saw.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: How do we get Congress back? How do we get Congress to do what it’s supposed to do? Oversight. Real reform. Challenge the powers that be.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: We have to take the money out. We <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">buy ampicilin</a>  have to get rid of the constant fundraising that happens inside the Congress. Before political parties used to raise money; now individual members are raising money through the DCCC and the RCCC. It is absolutely corrupt. It’s good people.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: Those are the fundraising groups both parties-</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Parties.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: In the Congress.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: And then people wonder, ‘Well, why doesn’t Congress get along?’ Because they are made into arch enemies by the type of fundraising system that is embedded in the very guts of the institution. So, you’ve got to clean that out. But meanwhile, we need to get hired over at the justice department, 1,000 agents, in mortgage fraud and in securities fraud. Then, I pray, that the leadership of both chambers will do the kind of robust hearings that the nation deserves to rout out those who did wrong and to change the fundamental financial architecture of this country. And then the President needs to get his top housing advisors in the room with him. And  they need to meet all weekend. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> And they need to get their arms around this housing market, in order to stem the rising foreclosures. We haven’t  stopped the bleeding out there. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>BILL MOYERS: Does President Obama get it?</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: I don’t think  President Obama has the right people around him. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The poor man inherited a total mess, globally and domestically. I think some of the people that he trusted haven’t delivered. I urge him to get new generals. It’s time.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Louis the Fourteenth of France, a very powerful monarch, was famous for having many bad things, you know, happen under his rule. And people would always say, <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buy propecia</a>  ‘If only Louis the Fourteenth knew. I’m sure he doesn’t know. If we could just tell him, he’d sort it out.’ You know. I’m skeptical.</p>
<p>BILL MOYERS: <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">buy viagra online</a>  Simon Johnson, Congresswoman Kaptur, thank you both very much for this interesting discussion.</p>
<p>MARCY KAPTUR: Thank you.</p>
<p>SIMON JOHNSON: Thank you.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Where is the Market Headed?</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/08/where-is-the-market-headed/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/08/where-is-the-market-headed/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Aug 2009 05:04:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/08/where-is-the-market-headed/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In answer Ampicillin cheap online to the question posed by the title, “Anyone’s guess is as good as mine.” Faithful readers will have noted that I have posted nothing about the market or economy for quite some time. ciprofloxacin and tinidazole The reason is that I’ve concluded that the sources that I’ve been reproducing here [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In answer <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">Ampicillin cheap online</a>  to the question posed by the title, “Anyone’s guess is as good as mine.” </p>
<p>Faithful readers will have noted that I have posted nothing about the market or economy  for quite some time. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The reason is that I’ve concluded that the sources that I’ve been reproducing here have not been helpful for those seeking investment <a href="http://onenetcenter.com/images/">buy levitra vardenafil</a>  help. I have little new to share, because the situation is the same as when I last posted: the economy continues to look sickly, with little prospect for near-term growth; the stock market continues <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra website</a>  cialis tablets</a>  it euphoric response to slowing <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online cheap ampicillin</a>  declines in output and earnings that are not down as much as the average analyst predicted. Those who have been swayed by my postings <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>  have missed a very substantial rally in the market. I’m sorry.</p>
<p>What does seem clear is that the policy makers of the world averted the Armageddon that seemed a real possibility <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">propecia buy</a>  last fall. The Federal Reserve and Obama, in March of this year, also made it abundantly clear that they would pour trillions into the financial institutions that caused the meltdown in order keep them from bankruptcy. Too Big To Fail seems to be the <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">propecia online</a>  new mantra of the <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">online lasix</a>  government managers. The recognition that banks were going to be bailed out ignited the rally that continues to this day.</p>
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<p>There is no shortage of intelligent commentators who think the rally is built on fragile, <a href="http://rx-prices.com/buy/erectile_dysfunction/viagra.html">Viagra Online</a>  brittle foundations that will soon collapse. For sure, the market seems unjustifiably <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy nolvadex</a>  exuberant. I keep asking myself why this should be. As I said once before when asking when the rally <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount | buy cialis cialis | buy levitra online cheap</a>  will end, the only explanation that makes any sense is that the vast amounts of money pumped into the financial system is leading to a new round of asset inflation. In the case of stocks, the very low interest rates on low-risk, government bonds and money market funds and CDs are a strong incentive to look for higher returns in the <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">buy cheap amoxil</a>  stock market. </p>
<p>How long this “illusion” can continue is anyone’s guess. At some point, <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Brand Levitra">Brand Levitra</a>  though, sales and earnings need to expand (not simply contract less slowly), and expand <a href="http://mm-project.com/images/">buy levitra cheap online</a>  sharply, or the low paying but low risk government bonds are going to begin to look more attractive than <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-erectile-dysfunction-pills.html">Buy Erectile Dysfunction medications</a>  stocks of companies mired in low profits. How long will market  leaders be willing to wait. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Again, I have no idea.</p>
<p>Here’s an article that captures the conundrum well, starting out with a warning of doom from a seer who has been very good in the past, and then following it with a contrary view. Place  your bets! <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><p><a name="article"></a></p>
<h3><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/6018076/RBS-uber-bear-issues-fresh-alert-on-global-stock-markets.html">RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.com">cheap buy acomplia</a>  stock markets</a></h3>
<h4>Three-month <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Viagra Jelly">Viagra Jelly</a>  slide could hit record lows, Royal Bank of Scotland chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy cytotec</a>  predicts. </h4>
<p>By <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/">Ambrose <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">phentermine</a>  <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxicillin</a>  Evans-Pritchard</a>, International Business Editor       <br />Published: 8:26PM BST 12 Aug 2009</p>
<p>&#160;</p>
<p><img height="287" alt="RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets" src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01461/bear_1461295c.jpg" width="460" /></p>
<p>A bear market is being forecast for after the summer Photo: REUTERS</p>
<p>Britain&#8217;s Uber-bear is growling   again. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> After predicting a torrid &quot;relief rally&quot; over the early summer, Bob Janjuah at Royal Bank of Scotland is advising clients to <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Tadacip">Tadacip</a> <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis now</a>   take profits in global equity and commodity markets and prepare for another storm as winter nears. </p>
<p>&quot;We are now in the middle of a parabolic spike up,&quot; he said in his latest confidential note to clients. </p>
<p>&quot;I expect this risk rally to continue into – and maybe through –  a l <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->arge part of August. What happens after that? The next ugly leg of the bear market begins as we get into the July through September &#8216;tipping zone&#8217;, driven by the failure of the data to validate the V (shaped recovery) that is now fully priced into <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin online</a>  markets.&quot; </p>
<p>The key indicators to watch are business spending on equipment (Capex), incomes, jobs, and profits. Only a &quot;surge higher&quot; <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">buy online diflucan</a>  in these gauges can justify current asset prices. Results that are merely &quot;less bad&quot; will not suffice. </p>
<p>He expects global stock markets to test  their March lows, and probably worse. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> &quot;A move to new lows is highly likely,&quot; he said. </p>
<p>Mr Janjuah, RBS&#8217;s chief credit strategist, <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>  has a loyal following in the City. He was one of the very few analysts to speak out early about the dangerous excesses of the credit bubble. He then made waves in the summer of 2008 by issuing a global crash alert, <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buy levitra drugs</a>  giving warning that a &quot;very nasty period is soon to be upon us&quot; as – indeed it was.   Lehman Brothers and AIG imploded weeks later. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>This time he expects the S&amp;P 500 index of US equities to reach the &quot;mid 500s&quot;, almost halving from current levels near 1000. Such a fall would take London&#8217;s FTSE 100 to around  2,500. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The iTraxx Crossover index measuring spreads on low-grade European debt will double to 1250. </p>
<p>Mr Janjuah advises  investors to seek safety in 10-year German bonds in late August or early September. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>While media headlines have played up the short-term bounce of corporate earnings, Mr Janjuah said this is a statistical illusion. <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/page,shop.product_details/flypage,flypage.tpl/product_id,46/category_id,6/option,com_virtuemart/Itemid,37/">cialis in usa</a>  Profits <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra cost</a>  were in reality down 20pc in the second quarter from the year before. They cannot rise  much as the West slowly purges debt and adjusts to record over-capacity. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/">Cialis no prescription</a>  &quot;Investors are again being sucked back into the game where &#8216;markets make opinions&#8217;, where &#8216;excess liquidity&#8217; is the driving investment rationale. </p>
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<p>&quot;The last two Augusts proved to be pivotal turning points: August 2007 <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription</a>  being the proverbial &#8216;head-fake&#8217; when everyone wanted to believe that policy-makers had seen off the credit disaster at the pass, and August 2008 being the calm before the <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">low price levitra</a>  utter collapse of Sept/Oct/Nov… 3rd time lucky anyone?&quot; </p>
<p>The elephant in the room is the spiralling public debt as private <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">generic levaquin</a>  losses are shifted on to the taxpayer,  especially in Britain and America. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> &quot;Ask yourself this: who bails out Government after they have bailed <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis Professional">Cialis Professional</a>  out everyone?&quot; </p>
<p>Mr <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra | buy cialis pills | levitra online</a>  Janjuah said governments might put off the day of reckoning into the middle of next year if they resort to another shot of stimulus, but that would store yet further problems. &quot;If what I fear plays out then <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Buy Viagra</a>  I will have to concede that the lunatics who ran the asylum pretty much into the ground last year are back in control.&quot; </p>
<p>Over  at Morgan Stanley, equity guru Teun Draaisma thinks we are through the worst. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> &quot;We were on course for a Great Depression in February, but Armageddon was avoided. Governments did not repeat the policy errors of the 1930s.&quot; </p>
<p>&quot;We have seen the lows of this crisis. This is a genuine <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand online</a>  rebound rally, and it has been short by historical standards so far,&quot; he said. </p>
<p>Mr Draaisma, who called the top of the bull market almost to the day in mid-2007, has crunched the worldwide data on 19 major stock market crashes over the last century. They show that the typical rebound rally (as opposed to bear trap rallies, when markets later plunge to new lows) lasts 17  months and stocks rise 71pc. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The 1993 rally in <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">prescription drugs online without a prescription</a>  the US was 170pc over  13 months. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Finland&#8217;s rally in 1994 was 295pc. Hong Kong rallied <a href="http://m.onlinemarketing4all.mm-project.com/images/">viagra sale</a>  159pc in  2000. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> This <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">cheapest viagra</a>  rebound is only five months old. The key indexes have risen 49pc in the US and 42pc in Europe. Mr Draaisma advises clients to stay in the stocks for now, but stick to telecom companies, utilities, and oil. </p>
<p>Yet he too expects a nasty correction once this rally falters. The usual trigger at this stage of the cycle is when central bankers start to make hawkish noises, typically a couple of months before <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Brand Cialis">Brand Cialis</a>  the first turn of the screw (normally a rate rise, but in this case <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy cheap amoxicillin</a>  an end to &quot;quantitative easing&quot;. &quot;As long as policy-makers are talking about how fragile the recovery is, equities are unlikely to go down much.&quot; </p>
<p>This moment can be hard to judge. There has already been rumbling from some governors at the US Federal Reserve and from the European Central Bank&#8217;s Jean-Claude Trichet. Markets are pricing in rates rises by early next year. </p>
<p>The pattern after major <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">buy cheap amoxicillin</a>  financial bust-ups <a href="http://noprescriptionpills.net/buy/cialis_super_active.html">Buy Cialis Super Active+ Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  is that the rebound rally gives way to another fall of 25pc or so, lasting a year, followed by five years of hard slog as  stocks  bounce up and down in a trading range, going nowhere. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Mr Draaisma suggests taking a close look <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Brand Cialis">Brand Cialis</a>  at <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  the chart of Japan&#8217;s Nikkei index from 1991 to 1999. Gains were  zero. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>We are in uncharted waters, however. Monetary and fiscal stimulus has been <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">online <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy xanax</a>  pharmacy</a>  unprecedented. Russell Napier at Hong Kong brokers CLSA says a powerful bull market is already taking shape as the American giant reawakens. Perma-bears will be left behind. He said: &quot;It is dangerous to be in cash.&quot; </p>
<p>When the finest minds in <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online Levitra buy</a>  the business disagree so starkly, the rest of us can only  shake our heads in confusion. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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</blockquote>
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		<title>The Amazing World of High Frequency Trading &#8211; You Lose!</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Jul 2009 16:18:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/07/the-amazing-world-of-high-frequency-trading-you-lose/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I wrote last week about the high level of program trading, notably buy amoxil by Goldman cheap cytotec Sachs. The details on this trading are emerging fast in the blogosphere, and it won’t be long until it hits the mainstream. There is a war going on among competing firms, using computers and inside order information, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://roylat.com/2009/07/why-im-discouraged/" <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online drugstore</a>  target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;>I wrote last week</a> about the high level of program trading, notably <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>  by Goldman <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cheap cytotec</a>  Sachs. The details on this trading are emerging fast in the blogosphere, and it won’t be long until it hits the mainstream. There is a war going on among competing firms, using computers and inside order information, to capture the immense profits possible.&#160; To get a sense of the scale, Goldman Sachs earned $25 billion in 2007 on program trading. A student of the field estimate that they will make $26 billion this year. This is not chicken feed, even in today’s trillion dollar world.</p>
<p>Now, some of the competitors are revealing the details because they feel they are being unfairly excluded because of inside deals between Goldman Sachs  and the exchanges. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> It is fascinating, amazing, highly technical, and full of high finance shenanigans to the major benefit of a few favored firms <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/">Cialis for sale</a>  – notably Goldman Sachs. </p>
<p>What <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">generic levaquin</a>  really caught my eye was that the NYSE <strong>pays</strong> firms, again, notably, Goldman Sachs, 1/4 cent per share to “supply liquidity” for providing limit orders (which be posted a fraction of a second before being executed, because the computer program sees the profit potential and acts on <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">lasix order</a>  it). On a million shares, 1/4 cent per share amounts to $2500. Repeat this a thousand times for a billion shares, and you get $2,500,000 –- about <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online | where to buy cialis | order online levitra</a>  one week or Goldman <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.com">buy cheap acomplia</a>  Sach’s recent program trading. But this doesn’t  tell the whole story. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The retail world doesn&#8217;t get to play. This is a game only for big boys who can afford to pay for the &quot;arms&quot; needed to fight this war. But the rest of us pay for the game, as that half cent is like a tax on transactions, not to mention the increased daily volatility, <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,cal/date,2060-06-01/">otc cialis</a>  which skews pricing. Think it doesn&#8217;t affect you? That &quot;tax&quot; is paid by mutual funds, your pension fund, and every large institution.</p>
<p>Frankly, this is outrageous. The more I read the madder I got. And it is going to get worse as computers get faster and software more intelligent. We <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy  Cialis online</a>  need rules to level the  playing field. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>All this &quot;algo&quot; <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buyviagra | buy cialis overseas | buy levitra drugs</a>  (algorithmic) trading also gives a very false impression of volume. If you are a fund and see 10 million shares a day traded, you might feel comfortable that you could hold one million shares and exit your trade easily. <a href="http://onenetcenter.com/images/">buy pfizer viagra online | buy cialis pills online | buy levitra vardenafil</a>  But if 80% of the volume is false &quot;algo&quot; trading, that volume <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra online price</a>  isn&#8217;t really there. You may have a position that will be a problem if you want to exit, and not know it.</p>
<p>&quot;High-frequency trading strategies have become a stealth <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">proscar</a>  tax on retail and institutional investors. While stock prices will probably go where they would have gone anyway, toxic trading takes money from real investors and gives it to the high frequency trader who has the best computer. <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">generic drugs</a>  The exchanges, ECNs and high frequency <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount </a>  traders are slowly bleeding investors, causing <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">online pharmacy</a>  cost</a>  their transaction costs to rise, and the investors don&#8217;t even know it.&quot; (Themis Trading)</p>
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<p>The link to the white paper is <a href="http://www.themistrading.com/article_files/0000/0348/Toxic_Equity_Trading_on_Wall_Street_12-17-08.pdf">http://www.themistrading.com/article_files/0000/0348/Toxic_Equity_Trading_on_Wall_Street_12-17-08.pdf</a>. <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">generic diflucan</a>  Themis Trading is at <a href="http://www.themistrading.com/">http://www.themistrading.com/</a>. </p>
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<p>More on this story, with links to many sources, are <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex buy</a>  contained in <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/king-report-hft/" target="_blank">a recent Casey Report</a>, reprinted  by the Big Picture. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->al example of the huge public costs of the mega-finance that our country and most of the world has come to depend on to fuel the endless economic growth deemed essential for well being. The costs go well beyond the profits of the free-wheeling casino firms that dominate the financial world. Far more important are their political connections, which skew public policies to their benefit and to the detriment of the public.</p>
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		<title>Why I&#8217;m Discouraged</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/07/why-im-discouraged/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/07/why-im-discouraged/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:49:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/07/why-im-discouraged/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I’ve been discouraged for some time by Obama’ add cialis drug link s apparent reliance for advice on two of the architects of the transfer of wealth and power to the mega investment banks. Larry Summers, who is the economic adviser on whom Obama relies most heavily, led the push for repeal of the Glass-Steagall [...]]]></description>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->s apparent reliance for advice on two of the architects of the transfer of wealth and power to the mega investment banks. Larry Summers, who is the economic adviser on whom Obama relies most heavily, led the push for repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in the Clinton Administration. The repeal of this act allowed the big investment banks to swallow up commercial <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis pill</a>  cheap amoxicillin</a>  banks and was  instrumental in their growth in the ensuing decade. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>When you add to Bernanke to Summers and Geithner, you have a trio seemingly hell-bent on transferring whatever  the required amount of wealth from savers and taxpayers to  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the financial institutions to reinflate them to the bloated size they were before the meltdown. The biggest banks are being made whole while the rest of us are living with our wealth reduced by one-third to one-half, or more for many unlucky enough to buy and mortgage houses at the top of the bubble.</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->a number of news items last week, my sense of discouragement grew. The biggest investment banks, led by Goldman Sachs, the biggest, baddest, <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">Amoxil buy cheap</a>  and most successful, are upping bonuses, ramping up speculation, and using all of their political clout (which is massive) to water down the gentle regulatory reforms proposed by Obama. </p>
<p>As a hopeful investor, I was particularly struck by news that Goldman Sachs and <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Levitra <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxil</a>  Professional&#8221;>Levitra Professional</a>  Credit Suisse had both mightily expanded their “program trading” activities. Program trading is minute by minute trading in massive quantities, using computers and sophisticated programs to profit from discrepancies in the pricing of securities – and also to profit from inside information and from their abilities to move <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">buy levitra</a>  the market. The  numbers  are staggering. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> As <a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_26.html">Zero Hedge</a> said in reporting these numbers:</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Goldman Sachs’ program trades were almost <a href="http://onliendrugs.com/buy/zoloft.html">Zoloft Online</a>  a billion shares in the week, and Credit Suisse’s were half a billion.</p>
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<p>The resurgence of the investment banks is not just in the US, but in Europe, too – where governments are equally dedicated to bailing them out. Reuter columnist <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE55N54D20090624">Paul Taylor wrote on June 24, 2009</a>:</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The weekly ups and downs tracked very closely, though the change in the Australian dollar was generally more muted. </p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> A recent article in Bloomberg spelled out:</p>
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<p>By Eric Martin and Michael Tsang</p>
<p><img style="display: inline; margin: 0px 10px 5px 0px" height="165" alt="" src="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&amp;iid=ieQnPPQv4XbA" width="220" align="left" border="0" /></p>
<p>June 29 (Bloomberg) &#8212; Investors are moving in <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND">lockstep</a> <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">online levitra</a>  like never before, driving <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription</a>  up stocks, commodities and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=MXEF%3AIND">emerging markets</a> and risking a replay of last year, when they all plunged the most since World War II. </p>
<p>The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index, whose <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND">increase</a> in the past three months was the steepest in seven decades, is rallying in tandem with benchmark measures for <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CRY%3AIND">raw materials</a>, developing- country equities and <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HFRIFOF%3AIND">hedge funds</a>. The so-called correlation <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">lasix to buy</a>  coefficient that measures how closely markets rise and fall together has reached the highest levels <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">prescription drugs online without prescription</a>  ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. </p>
<p>…</p>
<p>The gains [in all markets&#8217; pushed correlations between the <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SPX%3AIND">indexes</a> to 0.74 this month, based on percentage changes  over the past 60 days. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --></strong> A reading of 1 means two assets move in tandem, while zero means no relationship. </p>
<p>The correlation never rose above 0.66 before this month. </p>
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<p>David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Schiff, a Canadian economist whose insights I respect, pointed out the correlation and warned of its implications:</p>
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<li>And of course, sell Treasuries (that was a good trade coming off the 2% lows on the 10-year note, but what we just saw crammed into six months, <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">generic propecia</a>  which took 48 months to accomplish in the last bear market in govie bonds, was yields soaring 175bps from the low). Sentiment on government bonds is exceedingly bearish and inflation views have become too extreme for my liking. I believe there <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levaquin prescription</a>  is a lack of appreciation from what history <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  tells us about the aftershocks that occur after a cycle that <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">ampicillin online</a>  was  dominated  by a credit collapse and asset deflation, as opposed to a garden-variety inventory-led recession. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p align="left">What we are seeing is the re-creation of a finance-dominated economy, with the hedge funds and investment banks using easy money to play with our futures. This is not a pretty picture, and it is not one that seems likely to get any better.  The central banks, which are creatures of the banks, are calling the tune around the world. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Most politicians, even if not in the pay of the banks, appear to see no alternative <a href="http://onedollar.mm-project.com/images/">purchase levitra online</a>  for “saving the economy” to pumping up credit through the banking system. </p>
<p align="left">I have more reasons for being discouraged, but I’ll save those for another day. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<title>A Tale of Two Depressions</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:13:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The “Tale of Two Depressions” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic buy viagra activity in the Great Depression Tadalis SX and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The “<a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421">Tale of Two Depressions</a>” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>  activity in the Great Depression <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Tadalis SX">Tadalis SX</a>  and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of the Great Depression;&#160; 2) the stock markets have fallen much faster and further than they did following 1929; 3) <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil online</a>  monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have been much greater <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxicillin <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buying propecia</a>  no prescription</a>  now than in 1929-31. Here are several key figures from the article:</p>
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<p>If we were to continue the path of the Great Depression, real economic activity would have still a lot further to fall, and the stock <a href="http://accutanebuysale.com">Cheap Accutane <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/clomid.html">Buy Clomid Online</a>  </a>  market, <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy nolvadex</a>  though it has fallen a lot this time, would still have another 50% decline to  go. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Clearly, short-term interest rates were lower initially and have since been <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">online lasix</a>  pushed down to unprecedented <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">buy <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin online</a>  <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxicillin</a>  cheap viagra</a> <a href="http://acomplia-online-price.net">acomplia cheap</a>   levels. </p>
<p>The money supply, which is another indicator of monetary policy, is shown starting 4 years before  the downturn  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Figure 5 shows money supply for a GDP-weighted average of 19 countries <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy generic cytotec</a>  accounting for more than  half of world GDP in 2004. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Clearly, monetary expansion was more rapid in the run-up to the 2008 crisis than during 1925-29, which is a reminder <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">buy <a href="http://marketing4profit.info/images/">buy viagra online next day delivery | how can i buy cialis | order online levitra</a>  drugs online without prescription</a>  that the stage-setting events were <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount | buy cialis cialis | buy levitra online cheap</a>   not the same in the two cases. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Moreover, the global money supply continued to grow rapidly in 2008, unlike in 1929 when it levelled off and then underwent a catastrophic decline.</p>
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<p>Fiscal policy, as represented by government surpluses or  deficits <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->policy is much less radically different. If we look at year 5 (2009), the fiscal deficit is about 2% of GDP. In 1930, it was zero; but 2% of GDP is not very significant. In 2010,  the deficit  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Experiments, by their very nature, have uncertain outcomes.</p>
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<p>The rise in Treasury yields is being attributed to the massive deficits (the flip side of the economic stimulus). The federal government is going to need to sell $2 trillion of bonds to cover the deficit. There is skepticism  in the market that this amount will be saleable at current yields, especially given the concern that all of the monetary measure will lead to  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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]]></content:encoded>
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		</item>
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		<title>Efficient Markets versus Irrational Exuberance</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/efficient-markets-versus-irrational-exuberance/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/efficient-markets-versus-irrational-exuberance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:45:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/efficient-markets-versus-irrational-exuberance/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today’s Levitra New York Times has an article online pain pills entitled “Poking Holes in a Theory of Markets.” Joe Nocera, the author, interviews Jeremy Grantham and several academic economists. add cialis drug link The article makes what is now an obvious challenge to the theory of “efficient markets,” viagra online price the theory that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today’s <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  New York Times has an article <a href="http://pillshopping.net/">online pain pills</a>  entitled “<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/06/business/06nocera.html?_r=1">Poking Holes in a Theory of Markets</a>.” Joe Nocera, the author, interviews Jeremy Grantham and several academic  economists. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> The article makes what is now an obvious challenge to the theory of “efficient markets,” <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">viagra online price</a>  the theory that markets accurately reflect at all <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">amoxil buy</a>  times the best possible valuation of stocks and assets given current information. This is a version of the old debate in Wall Street about whether or not one can  do better than simply to invest in an index  fund. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The article itself is not all that insightful, but  what caught my eye was a reference to Robert Shiller, and following that reference did lead me to useful insights. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> You may recall that Robert Shiller is most widely cited because of the Case-Shiller index of housing prices, an index that  captures current housing prices much better than the government index. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->and the likelihood that when it burst it would do serious economic damage. He did not foresee the magnitude of the calamity, but he shouldn’t be criticized for what no one really foresaw. </p>
<p>To me, what stands out is that Shiller is a full-fledged establishment economist, a full professor at economics and finance <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">diflucan <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy cytotec generic</a>  generic</a>   at Yale University. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> As far as I can tell, just about every establishment economist is completely at a loss when it comes to understanding the <em>real economy</em>, that is, the economy <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil clavulin</a>  that matters to those of us who need  jobs, food on the table, the ability to pay for health care, to educate our children, and hopefully, eventually to retire. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> In this world, stock prices, housing prices, and commodity prices are just not all that important, because they don’t relate to what they consider real, that is <em>real</em>, that is, inflation-adjusted GDP.</p>
<p>Now, of course <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Cialis online</a>  there is the legion of mathematical economists who migrated wholesale to the big financial firms over the last 20-30 years, but they have had no interest in the real economy either, only in how to use mathematics and statistics to more accurately price assets (ignoring the contradiction between <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">cheap <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/">cialis dosage 40 mg</a>  propecia</a>  this task and the belief in the theory of efficient markets). There <a href="http://mm-project.com/images/">buy cialis overnight shipping</a>  is no doubt that some of this work led to outsize profits for them and their employees, but most of these profits came not from truly better valuations but from using huge amounts of credit to multiply <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levofloxacin</a>  their ability to profit from small imperfections in the market. Hardly any of them saw further than the next bonus check. </p>
<p>Robert Shiller is evidently cut from different <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">buy cialis pills</a>  cloth. He first published <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767923634?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=dharcloufoun-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0767923634">Irrational <a href="http://m.onlinemarketing4all.mm-project.com/images/">levitra vardenafil</a>  <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Cialis Jelly">Cialis Jelly</a>  Exuberance</a><img style="margin: 0px; border-top-style: none! important; border-right-style: none! important; border-left-style: none! important; border-bottom-style: none! important" height="1" alt="" src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=dharcloufoun-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0767923634" width="1" border="0" /> in early 2000, before the dot-com bubble burst. He published the  second edition in 2006, warning of the unjustified housing bubble. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><p>For <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">viagra female</a>  example, I clearly remember a taxi driver in Miami explaining to me years ago that the housing bubble there was getting crazy. With all the construction under way, which he pointed out as we drove along, he said that there would surely  be a glut in the market and, eventually, a disaster. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->? And why didn’t a consensus of economists at universities and other institutions warn that a crisis was on the way?</p>
<p>The field of social psychology provides a possible answer. In his classic 1972 book, “Groupthink,” Irving L. Janis, the Yale psychologist, explained how panels of experts could make colossal mistakes. People on t hese panels,  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->he said, are forever worrying about their personal relevance and effectiveness, and feel that if they deviate too far from the consensus, they will not be given a serious role. They self-censor personal doubts about the emerging group consensus if they cannot express these doubts in a formal way that conforms with apparent assumptions held by the group.</p>
<p>…</p>
<p>From my own experience <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">cheap Amoxil <a href="http://amoxilbuysale.com">Buy Amoxil </a>  </a>  on expert panels, I know firsthand the pressures that people — might I say mavericks? — may feel when questioning the group consensus. </p>
<p>I was connected with the Federal Reserve System as a member the economic advisory panel of the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/f/federal_reserve_bank_of_new_york/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Federal <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Kamagra Soft">Kamagra Soft</a>  Reserve Bank of New York</a> from 1990 until 2004, when the New York bank’s new president, <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/g/timothy_f_geithner/index.html?inline=nyt-per">Timothy <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online</a>  F. Geithner</a>, arrived. [Note that this was published on November 1, 2008, before the election and before Geithner became Treasury Secretary. Interesting that Shiller left the panel when Geithner <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,cal/date,2060-04-01/">cialis <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">cheap amoxil</a>  c20</a>  arrived. Roylat] That panel advises the president of the New York bank, who, in turn, is vice chairman of the Federal <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">lasix buy</a>  Open Market Committee, which sets interest rates.  In my position on the panel,  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>I <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">buy <a href="http://camagra-pharm.net">buy kamagra</a>  cheap drugs</a>  gave talks in 2005 at both the Office of the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/c/comptroller_of_the_currency/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Comptroller <a href="http://passionoflife.net/images/">buy cialis daily</a>  <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">cheap ampicilllin</a>  brand vs generic</a>  of the Currency</a> and at the <a href="http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/organizations/f/federal_deposit_insurance_corp/index.html?inline=nyt-org">Federal <a href="http://onliendrugs.com/buy/accutane.html">Accutane Online</a>  Deposit Insurance Corporation</a>, in which I  argued th <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><strong>I based my predictions largely on the recently developed field of behavioral economics, which posits that psychology matters for economic events. Behavioral economists are still regarded <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy real viagra without prescription </a>  as a fringe group by many  mainstream economists. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Support from fellow behavioral economists was important in my <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">buy proscar</a>  daring to talk about speculative bubbles. </strong>[Emphasis added. Roylat]</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Two aspects of this article stand out: 1) Incorporating social psychology into an understanding of the failure of the market and its overseers to see what should have been obvious, and 2) the fact <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Cialis <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">0nline pharmacy</a>  Jelly&#8221;>Cialis Jelly</a>  <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">cialis online</a>  that there is a field of “behavioral economics.” It seems well worthwhile to learn more about this field <a href="http://nonprescriptionmed.net/buy/zoloft.html">Buy Zoloft Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  of economics – and I’m starting out by getting a copy of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0767923634?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=dharcloufoun-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0767923634">Irrational Exuberance</a><img style="margin: 0px; border-top-style: none! important; border-right-style: none! important; border-left-style: none! important; <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription</a>  border-bottom-style: none! important&#8221; height=&#8221;1&#8243; alt=&#8221;" src=&#8221;http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=dharcloufoun-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0767923634&#8243; <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra <a href="http://viagrabrand.net">Online Viagra Shops</a>  sales</a>  width=&#8221;1&#8243; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /> . This could prove to be a basic foundation for understanding the waves of over-optimism (and over-pessimism) that sweep over markets with regularity.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Will the Rally Ever End?</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/will-the-rally-ever-end/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/will-the-rally-ever-end/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:55:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/will-the-rally-ever-end/</guid>
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<p><a href="http://www.gluskinsheff.com/">David Rosenberg, Chief Economist for Gluskin Sheff and Associates</a> summarizes the situation succinctly. His point is that when everyone climbs into the same trades, at some point there is no one <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">amoxicillin online</a>  left outside to keep them moving <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex generic</a>  upward. When they begin <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">buy <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">ampicillin buy</a>  cheap acomplia</a>  to fall and people begin to jump ship, the dynamic <a href="http://nonprescriptionmed.com/buy/cialis_professional.html">Buy Cialis Professional Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  can quickly swing the  other way. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> What is keeping it afloat now seems to be the excessive liquidity <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  pumped into the  system and the now conventional idea that inflation will be the big next economic event. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> I have emphasized his caution about this view.</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>Market &amp; Data Musings</strong>      <br /><strong>Brunch with Dave</strong></p>
<p><img height="16" hspace="5" src="https://ems.gluskinsheff.net/ems/images/wdgt.pdf.gif" width="16" align="absMiddle" /> <a href="http://Links.ems.gluskinsheff.net/a/l.x?T=kfnbjlihjdaeangmieijaj&amp;M=4">Read full article (PDF, 315KB)</a> [requires free registration]</p>
<p><strong>June 4, 2009</strong>      <br /><b>Everyone is back in the same trade</b></p>
<ul>
<li>Buy stocks (massive multiple expansion &#8211; S&amp;P 500 priced <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-erectile-dysfunction-pills.html">Buy <a href="http://jtc-enterprises.com/images/">buy viagra online order | buy cialis tadalafil | buy levitra vardenafil</a>  <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>  Erectile Dysfunction medications</a>  for $75 operating EPS)       </li>
<li>Buy commodities (still long-term bullish but a pullback is definitely overdue)       </li>
<li>Buy non-Treasury <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buy levitra drugs</a>  bonds (same story as commodities &#8211; long-term <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra cost</a>  bullish on corporates, but supply is now coming in droves and being gobbled up &#8211; this <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/viagra_soft_tabs.html">Viagra Soft Tabs Online</a>  is NOT <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">online <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Tadacip">Tadacip</a>  propecia</a>  the contrarian trade of six-months ago)       </li>
<li>Buy gold (again, in a secular bull phase, but the dollar is not going to zero and being bearish on the greenback has become far too fashionable &#8211; especially in the wake of Bill Gross&#8217;s latest missive; the Euro is saddled with problems at least as deep as the USD, if not deeper)       </li>
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		<title>Britain&#8217;s Debt Downgrade &#8211; A Lesson for the US</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/05/britains-debt-downgrade-a-lesson-for-the-us/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/05/britains-debt-downgrade-a-lesson-for-the-us/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 17:02:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/05/britains-debt-downgrade-a-lesson-for-the-us/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The unrestrained efforts of the Obama administration to rescue and reinflate the financial buy cheap drugs sector of the US (at the expense proscar of taxpayers and savers) are the most discouraging aspect of his administration. buy xenical viagra propecia com These efforts are apparently based on the belief that what is good for investment [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The unrestrained efforts of the Obama administration to rescue and reinflate the financial <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">buy cheap drugs</a>  sector of the US (at the expense <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">proscar</a>  of taxpayers and savers) are the  most discouraging aspect of his administration. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> These efforts are apparently based on the belief that what is good for investment banks is good for America. </p>
<p>Martin Wolf, a columnist for the Financial Times, writes about the costs to Britain of its politically dominant <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">diflucan buy online</a> <a href="http://viagrabrand.net">Online Viagra Shops</a>   financial sector. All that he <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">cheapest nolvadex</a>  says is applicable to our country. Read  it and weep. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><h4><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24bfcb30-4636-11de-803f-00144feabdc0.html">Why Britain has to curb finance</a></h4>
<p>By Martin Wolf </p>
<p>Published: May 21 <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">purchase viagra online</a>  2009 19:44 | Last updated: May 21 2009 19:44</p>
<p>The UK has a strategic nightmare: it has a strong comparative advantage in the world’s most irresponsible  industry. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> So now, in <a href="http://online-prescription-med.com/buy/propecia.html">Buy Propecia Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  the wake of the biggest financial crisis since the 1930s, the UK must ask itself a painful question: how <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">ampicillin buy</a>  should <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis">Cialis</a>  the country  manage the cuckoo sitting in its nest <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The question is inescapable. London is one of the world’s  two most important centres  of global finance. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Its regulators have, as a result, an influence on the world <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">levitra costs</a>  economy out of proportion to the country’s size. In the years leading up to the crisis, that influence was surely malign: the “light <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis online</a>  touch” approach led the way in a regulatory race to the bottom.</p>
<h5>EDITOR’S CHOICE</h5>
<h6><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/beb9b7e8-449f-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html">Martin Wolf: This crisis is a moment, but may not be a defining one</a> &#8211; <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  May-19</h6>
<h6><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e7dd89c-3f1c-11de-ae4f-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=653c5c4a-0ca3-11de-a555-0000779fd2ac.html">Martin Wolf: Why Obama’s conservatism may <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">viagra female</a>  not prove good enough</a> &#8211; May-12</h6>
<p>The fiscal costs <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Levitra Professional">Levitra Professional</a>  of this crisis <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">buy lasix</a>  will be comparable to those of a <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand generic</a>  big war. Thursday’s threatened downgrade by Standard &amp; Poor’s is a reminder of those costs. Loss of jobs and incomes will also scar <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">online <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">cheap ampicilllin</a>  amoxil</a>  the lives  of  hundreds  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>All this occurred, in part, because institutions replete with highly qualified and highly rewarded people were unable or unwilling to manage risk responsibly. The UK, as a country, the City of London and the broader financial industry bear much responsibility for this calamity. This is a time for self-examination.</p>
<p>A recent report on <a href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/uk_internationalfinancialservices070509.pdf">the <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy real viagra without prescription </a>  future of UK international financial services, </a>produced by  a group co-ch <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->aired by Sir Win Bischoff, former chairman of Citigroup, and Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, fails to provide such self-examination. This is partly because the committee consisted of the industry’s “great and good”. It is far more because Mr Darling had already <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">buy <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">cheap <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">buy cialis pills</a>  buy ampicillin</a>  levaquin</a>  <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">cheap amoxil online</a>  decided that “financial services are critical to the UK’s future”. Thus, the report’s remit was “to examine the competitiveness of financial services globally and to develop a framework on which to base policy and initiatives to keep UK financial services competitive”.</p>
<p>If you <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy online amoxil</a>  ask the wrong question, you will get the wrong answer. The right question is, instead, this: what framework is needed to ensure that the operation of <a href="http://femaleviagrabuysale.com">Buy Female Viagra </a>  the financial sector is compatible with the long- run  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Quite simply, the sector imposes massive negative externalities (or costs) on bystanders. <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">amoxicillin</a>  Thus, the recommendation “that the financial sector be allowed to recalibrate its <a href="http://pillshopping.net/">online pharmacy no prescription</a>  activities according to the sentiments and demands of the market” is wrong. A market works well if, and only if, decision-makers confront the consequences of their decisions. <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/page,shop.browse/category_id,6/option,com_virtuemart/Itemid,38/vmcchk,1/">generic soft tabs cialis</a>  This is not – and probably cannot be – the case in finance: certainly, people now sit on fortunes earned in activities that have led to unprecedented rescues and the worst recession since the 1930s. Given this, the industry has become too big. If implicit and explicit <a href="http://meetyourdate.info/images/index.php">buy viagra cheap online</a>  guarantees and <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/">Viagra generic</a>  externalities, including volatility, were fully charged, the sector would surely   shrink. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>So how should one manage a sector that produces such “bads”? The answer is: in the same   way as any polluting activity. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> One taxes it. At this point, the authors of the report will surely ask: “How can you suggest taxing a sector so vital to the UK economy?” The answer is: easily. Financial services generate only 8 per cent of gross domestic product. They are more important for taxation and <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Viagra online</a>  the balance of payments. But this tax revenue turns out to be perilously <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">acomplia</a>  volatile. True, in 2007, the last year before the crisis, the UK ran a trade surplus of £37bn in financial services, partially <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra prices</a>  offsetting an £89bn deficit in goods. But smaller net earnings from financial services would have generated a lower real exchange rate and more earnings elsewhere. Given the costs imposed by the financial sector, a more diversified economy would have been healthier. Such sacrilegious ideas are, of course, not to be found in the Bischoff report.</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the UK approach policy towards the sector? I would <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">viagra online price</a>  suggest <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cheap <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">levitra online price</a>  cytotec</a>  the following guiding ideas.</p>
<p>First, the UK needs to make  global  regulation work. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Second, it must, in particular, help ensure that owners and managers <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy cialis cialis </a>  of financial institutions internalise most of the costs of their actions.</p>
<p>Third, it must reject egregious special pleading from the industry. <a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d4a7adfc-44a5-11de-82d6-00144feabdc0.html">The <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/viagra_professional.html">Buy Viagra Professional Online</a>  <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buyviagra </a>  cialis pills</a>  sector argues</a> that moving derivatives trading on to exchanges might damage  innovation. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> So what? Maximising innovation is a crazy objective. As in pharmaceuticals, <a href="http://jtc-enterprises.com/images/">buy levitra vardenafil</a>  a trade-off exists between innovation and safety. If institutions threaten to take trading activities offshore, banking licenses <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buy propecia</a>  should be revoked.</p>
<p>Fourth, while trying to create a stable and favourable environment for business activities, the UK should try <a href="http://passionoflife.net/images/">buy buy cheap cheap levitra levitra</a>  to <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>  diversify the economy away from finance, <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Tadalis SX">Tadalis SX</a>  not reinforce its overly strong comparative advantage within it.</p>
<p>Fifth, UK authorities need to ensure that the risks run by institutions <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Levitra <a href="http://igot-rippedoff.com/images/">buy generic viagra professional</a>  Professional&#8221;>Levitra Professional</a>  they guarantee fall within the financial and regulatory capacity of the British state. They should not let the country be exposed to the risks created by inadequately supported and under-regulated foreign institutions. At the very least, they should not undermine other governments’ efforts to regulate their own institutions.</p>
<p>The “old normal”  was simply unsustainable. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><i>Write to </i><a href="mailto:martin.wolf@ft.com">martin.wolf@ft.com</a>      <br /><i>More columns at </i><a <a href="http://camagra-pharm.net">kamagra to buy</a>  href=&#8221;http://www.ft.com/comment/columnists/martinwolf&#8221;>www.ft.com/martinwolf</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.ft.com/servicestools/help/copyright">Copyright</a> The Financial Times Limited 2009</p>
</blockquote>
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