I haven’t written about investments for some time, feeling that I have no better insights than anyone else about what is sensible to do in this environment. The equity markets seem overvalued, the bond markets face at some point a rise in interest rates that will be bad for bond prices, and commodities seem to [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Global Economy'
All That Glitters Is Gold
November 5th, 2009 · 2 Comments · Federal Reserve, Global Economy, Gold, Interest rates, inflation
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The “Correction” Has Arrived
July 7th, 2009 · No Comments · Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Global Economy, Stock Market, Technical Analysis
It is no news that the market has ceased to follow its apparently unrelenting advance. For the last month, it couldn’t get above 950 on the S&P. It bounced around between 950 and 930. Commentators that I follow became increasingly cautious about the market, warning that a downturn seemed likely. When the S&P broke below [...]
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Why I’m Discouraged
July 1st, 2009 · 1 Comment · Bailout, Banks, Commodities, Corporate Power, Debt, Economy, Federal Reserve, Financial, Global Economy, Obama, Policy, Politics, Stock Market, Treasury, Wall Street
I’ve been discouraged for some time by Obama’s apparent reliance for advice on two of the architects of the transfer of wealth and power to the mega investment banks. Larry Summers, who is the economic adviser on whom Obama relies most heavily, led the push for repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in the Clinton Administration. [...]
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Edward Albert Warns of “China Bubble”
June 17th, 2009 · No Comments · China, Global Economy, Stock Market
Regular readers will recall that I am a great fan of Edward Albert and James Montier. Not only did they predict the financial meltdown of 2008 early in the year, when most were still bullish, but they explained accurately the underlying mechanisms that would cause it. Early this year, Mr. Albert argued that the Chinese [...]
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Marc Faber Ahead of the Curve
June 15th, 2009 · No Comments · Commodities, Currency, Global Economy, Stock Market
Over the weekend, I read a commentary of Marc Faber made on June 9, the previous Monday. As the market has dropped precipitously this morning, it seems that once again Mr. Faber has given advice that would have been well to see and heed. Though I knew in general Mr. Faber’s advice, I have been [...]
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Comparing the Current Downturn with Previous Ones
June 12th, 2009 · No Comments · Economy, Financial, Global Economy
A very interesting set of charts comparing the present recession to the Great Depression and the average of other recessions, prepared by Paul Schwartz of the Council on Foreign Relations. Here is one sample chart of the extensive collection, together with the introduction. The full report is an Acrobat file.
It shows that this is a [...]
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A Tale of Two Depressions
June 8th, 2009 · No Comments · Analysis, Bonds, Debt, Economics, Economy, Federal Reserve, Global Economy, Interest rates, Stimulus, Stock Market, Treasury
The “Tale of Two Depressions” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic activity in the Great Depression and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of the Great Depression; 2) [...]
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The Focus Is Shifting to the Deficit – Bad News for Bonds and the Market
May 25th, 2009 · No Comments · Debt, Dollar, Economics, Financial, Global Economy, Policy, Stock Market, Wall Street
I’ve noticed lately many more articles commenting on the projected US deficits (which are enormous). I think that “green shoots” is about played out as a media and market focus. As the focus shifts to the questionable long-term economic prospects of the US and the problems created by the deficits, the mood on Wall Street [...]
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Marc Faber – An Optimist?
May 22nd, 2009 · No Comments · Financial, Global Economy, Stock Market
Marc Faber, the original Dr. Doom, an optimist? It sounds like an oxymoron. However, after being highly pessimistic for most of the last year, Mr. Faber now seems more optimistic than pessimistic about the direction of the world’s security markets.
In a wide-ranging interview recorded by Bloomberg Television, Mr. Faber touched on a wide variety of [...]
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Beyond the Green Shoots, the View Is Not So Rosy
May 22nd, 2009 · No Comments · Debt, Economy, Global Economy, Stock Market, Video, Wall Street
I’m not sure if I’m just getting a biased view from the blogs that I read, but it seems that more commentators are looking beyond the “green shoots” to the underlying huge problems that confront the US (and world) economy. Those who’ve been banking on a quick recovery are delusional.
A good exposition of the [...]
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