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		<title>All That Glitters Is Gold</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:56:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/11/all-that-glitters-is-gold/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I haven’t written about investments for some time, feeling that I have no better insights than anyone else about what is sensible to do in th 30mg cialis is environment. The equity markets seem overvalued, the bond markets face at some point a rise in interest rates that will be bad for bond prices, and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven’t written about investments for some time, feeling that I have no better insights than anyone else about what  is sensible to do in th <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->is environment. The equity markets seem overvalued, the bond markets face at some point a rise in interest rates that will be bad for bond prices, and commodities seem to be predicting a resurgent world economy that is by no means <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/option,com_jcalpro/Itemid,99999999/extmode,flyer/date,2060-08-01/">cialis <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand price</a>  prescriptions</a>  certain.</p>
<p>What seems to be continuing its long-term strength is gold. Now, I for <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis Jelly">Cialis Jelly</a>  one, have always felt that investing in gold is like shooting craps, because gold has  no intrinsic value. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Now, I’m feeling that gold may be a reasonable place to put some of one’s money. The primary reason for this is that the US and other countries have “printed” so much money (in their efforts to prevent the financial collapse) that the future value of currency relative to gold seems likely to continue to fall (so the price of gold in currency terms will rise). </p>
<p>Aside from this argument, gold has quite steadily risen in the last year (as well as previous years) even when events would argue that it should be declining. <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Buy Viagra, Buy Cialis, Buy Levitra Without Prescription</a>  <a href="http://pills-store-online.com/">prescription drugs online no prescription</a>  This suggests growing underlying demand.</p>
<p>David Rosenberg, who is a great skeptic about equities and the economy, puts the case for gold well:</p>
<blockquote><p><a href="http://links.ems.gluskinsheff.net/a/l.x?T=kfnbjlmpephielndjlnojidm&amp;M=4">GOLD GLITTERS</a></p>
<p>While the gold purchase by India’s central bank is widely viewed as the trigger point for the latest jump in the gold price, there are good reasons why bullion is in bull mode. It comes down to a fiscal policy in the U.S.A.  that will stop at nothing to ensure  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Even with a fiscal deficit north of 10% of GDP, the article from yesterday’s WSJ that was titled Job-Creation <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">Ampicillin cheap online</a>  Panel Leery of  Spending really resonated. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>So the strategy remains on “short-term” tactics as opposed to any long-run measures to improve the capital stock, enhance skills and training, <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy generic cytotec</a>  bolster  education and enhance productivity growth. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> If Milton Friedman taught us anything from the <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/">Viagra online prescription</a>  permanent income hypothesis, it was that changes to income or   wealth that are perceived to be permanent have a much more beneficial and enduring effect than measures that are only transitory. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> But of course the other problem is who will pay for this fiscal largesse, and the answer is that nobody —the Fed will simply monetize the debt. More dollars will be printed and that is bullish for gold whose production is in secular decline.</p>
<p>Then  we saw this article on the WSJ yesterday too, titled Labor Gets Boost In Skies, on Rails. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Anyone involved in the markets, has to read this article and understand the differences between what is happening now and when the secular  bull market  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->began under Reagan administration in the early 1980s. To wit:</p>
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<p>Another reason for our bullish stance on gold is that we are not seeing the onset of a secular bull market in equities like the one we saw in the early 1980s.</p>
<p>The National Mediation Board wants to make it easier for thousands of airline and railway workers to unionize under the Railway Labor Act by seeking to junk a 75-year old election rule, according to a proposal published Monday in the Federal register. The move comes after a White House appointment shifted the balance of the government agency’s three-person   board. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Linda Puchala, a former flight attendant union leader, was selected to replace Read Van de Water, a former Northwest Airlines lobbyist, earlier this year.”</p>
<p>To reiterate, this is not the onset of a sustainable secular bull market in equities as we had coming off the fundamental lows of prior bear phases, <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra Gold">Kamagra Gold</a>  such as August <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levaquin</a>  1982, when:</p>
<p>• Dividend yields were 6%, not sub 2% currently       <br />• Price-to-earnings multiples were 8x, not 26x       <br />• The market traded at book value, not over two times book       <br />• Inflation and bond yields were in double digits and headed down in the future, not near-zero and only headed higher       <br />• The stock market competed with 18% cash rates, not zero, and as such had a much higher hurdle to clear    <a href="http://onlinepharmacy-drugs.net/buy/viagra.html">Buy Viagra Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>     <br />• Sentiment was universally bearish; hardly the case today       <br />• Global trade flows were in the process of accelerating as barriers were taken down; today, we are seeing trade flows recede as frictions, disputes and tariffs become the order of the day       <br />• Unionization rates were on a secular decline; today labor power is clearly on the rise       <br />• A Reagan-led movement was afoot to reduce the role of government with attendant productivity gains in the future; as opposed to the infiltration by the public sector into the capital markets, union sector, economy and <a href="http://over50losingweight.com/images/">424 buy viagra | where to buy cialis without prescription | order online levitra</a>  of course, <a <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra soft</a>  href=&#8221;http://onlineacompliacheap.net&#8221;>buy cheap acomplia</a>  the realm of CEO compensation</p>
<p>FINAL WORD ON GOLD</p>
<p>Gold <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">online amoxil</a>  broke <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">low <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">cheap amoxil</a>  price levitra</a>  out to a new high yesterday of $1,084/oz <a href="http://buyLasixcheap.com">online lasix</a>  (and <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">buy generic levitra</a>  continues to rally today). It did this despite the S&amp;P 500 managing to tick up two points and despite the DXY index actually eking out an 8bps rise to 76.3. This is NOT just a U.S. dollar story — have a look at what bullion is doing in Euro terms. Very impressive. This is a broadly based breakout and that means a durable secular bull market.       <br />Looking at the growth <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin online</a>  rates in fiat currency that central banks are creating to stimulate their economies and the amount of bullion that would be necessary to back up this massive global monetary infusion suggests that gold can at least double if not triple from here. If you missed the first 4x runup from the $250/oz lows a decade ago, don’t worry about <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">generic female viagra</a>  it. It’s like worrying about how you would have missed the first half of the rally in the S&amp;P 500 from 1982 to 1992 when the index was at 400 and still had 300% to go before finally peaking out and sputtering at the 1500+ highs eight  years later. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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</blockquote>
<p>Another investment source, Prieur du Plessis, who I respect, makes the case for gold from another perspective:</p>
<blockquote><h4><a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/05/gold-bullion-surging-in-all-currencies/">Gold bullion surging in all currencies</a></h4>
<p>I argued the bull case for gold in <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis soft</a>  my posts over the past few months (see “<a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/07/gold-bullion-regaining-its-shine/">Gold <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">buy merck propecia</a>  bullion  &#8211; regaining its shine <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->?</a>“, <a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/05/22/gold-bullion-glitters-bright/">“Gold bullion glitters bright”</a> and “<a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/09/05/gold-bullion-%e2%80%93-challenging-1000/">Gold bullion &#8211; challenging $1,000</a>“. With the gold price scaling fresh peaks and closing in on $1,100, it would certainly seem as if renewed interest <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy <a href="http://femaleviagrabuysale.com">Buy Female Viagra </a>  cialis tablets</a>  in the yellow metal is being stirred up, especially subsequent to the purchase by India’s central bank of 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.</p>
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<p>As printing presses are running at full speed to produce ever-increasing quantities of fiat money as governments engineer the greatest <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">amoxicillin</a>  asset price reflation in human history &#8211; and the US greenback is heading South &#8211; the longer-term fundamental case for the yellow metal is arguably positive.</p>
<p>“The gold bug has caught several big hedge fund managers this year including John <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Tadacip">Tadacip</a>  Paulson of Paulson &amp; Company, Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors and David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, who believe enormous monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the global economy will eventually result in hyperinflation,” said <a href="http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/28/seeing-next-boom-tudor-goes-for-the-gold/">The <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>The gold price is not only making headway in US dollar terms, but also in most major (and minor) currencies  as illustrated by the table and graph below. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><p>…</p>
<p>The shorter-term technical picture is also looking interesting. This is explained by Adam Hewison of <a href="http://www.ino.com/info/205/CD3194/&amp;dp=0&amp;l=0&amp;campaignid=9">INO.com</a> <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxicillin</a>  who prepared a short technical analysis of gold’s most likely direction and key chart levels. Click <a href="http://www.ino.com/info/474/CD3194/&amp;dp=0&amp;l=0&amp;campaignid=3">here</a> to access the video presentation.</p>
<p>Seasonally, the period from November to December has traditional been good for gold, with average gains ranging from more than 1% to almost 2.5% since 1970.</p>
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<p>Source: Plexus Asset Management</p>
<p>I remain bullish <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">viagra online stores</a>  on gold in the medium term, especially as I believe the vast money printing by central banks could set off strong <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex <a href="http://meetyourdate.info/images/index.php">buy viagra cheap online | buy cialis online 32 | generic levitra buy online</a>  generic</a>  inflation  pressures down the road. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> I will not be surprised to see bullion remaining in a secular uptrend in the medium term. <strong>Add bullion to your portfolios, but given  the notorious volatility of  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->the metal only do so on pullbacks. </strong>(Emphasis added.)</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2009/11/05/gold-bullion-surging-in-all-currencies/">Full Article</a></p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Plessis’s article, because even thought the trend is strongly upward, there is a lot of volatility in price. Buying now, after such a sharp rise entails the risk of a fall. On the other hand, gold fever seems to be spreading quite broadly, which could lead to near-term sharp rises.</p>
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<p>A final warning: my timing has been less than sterling in the last year; <a href="http://onliendrugs.com/buy/revia.html">Buy Revia Online</a>  so my coming to feel gold is a reasonable investment (among a set of relatively bleak choices) could be a good contrary sign.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>A Tale of Two Depressions</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:13:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stimulus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/a-tale-of-two-depressions/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The “Tale of Two Depressions” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic buy viagra activity in the Great Depression Tadalis SX and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The “<a href="http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421">Tale of Two Depressions</a>” updates an earlier column (“up to April 2009) that graphically compared many aspects of global economic <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>  activity in the Great Depression <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Tadalis SX">Tadalis SX</a>  and the recent past. The key findings of this comparison are: 1) many aspects of real economic activity are closely following the downward path of the Great Depression;&#160; 2) the stock markets have fallen much faster and further than they did following 1929; 3) <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil online</a>  monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have been much greater <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxicillin <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">buying propecia</a>  no prescription</a>  now than in 1929-31. Here are several key figures from the article:</p>
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<p>If we were to continue the path of the Great Depression, real economic activity would have still a lot further to fall, and the stock <a href="http://accutanebuysale.com">Cheap Accutane <a href="http://getrxpills.com/buy/clomid.html">Buy Clomid Online</a>  </a>  market, <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy nolvadex</a>  though it has fallen a lot this time, would still have another 50% decline to  go. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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		<title>The &#8220;Other&#8221; Markets Are the Big News &#8211; Bill Gross of PIMCO</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/06/the-other-markets-are-the-big-news-bill-gross-of-pimco/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/06/the-other-markets-are-the-big-news-bill-gross-of-pimco/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Jun 2009 19:00:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/06/the-other-markets-are-the-big-news-bill-gross-of-pimco/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While most attention focuses on the stock market in the popular media, the big news of late has been in the bond and foreign exchange markets. Interest rates buy xenical viagra propecia com on government treasuries have been rising rapidly and the dollar has been Viagra Jelly plummeting equally rapidly. pharmaceutical pills What is this [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While most attention focuses on the stock market in the popular media, the big news of late has been in the bond and foreign exchange markets. Interest  rates <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->? Bill Gross, <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy xanax</a>  a managing director of PIMCO, the world’s largest bond company, writes a widely read monthly column. His latest one attempts to explain <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin buy</a>  what is  happening and what it means. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>I would hesitate now to rush to implement his investment recommendations (see <a href="http://roylat.com/2009/06/will-the-rally-ever-end/"><em>Will the Rally Ever End</em></a><em>). </em>His analysis is <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Kamagra">Kamagra</a>  best viewed as a basis for long-term strategy,  not for short-term  trading. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<blockquote><p><b>Investment <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">online amoxil</a>  Outlook</b></p>
<p>Bill Gross | June 2009</p>
<p><img height="15" src="http://www.pimco.com/PIMCO_US.Site/Images/spacer.gif" width="1" border="0" /><b></b></p>
<h2><a href="http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2009/IO+June+2009+Staying+Rich+in+the+New+Normal+Gross.htm">Staying Rich in the New Normal</a></h2>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->is going to buy all of this debt? Estimates suggest gross Treasury issuance of up to $3 trillion this calendar year and <u>net</u> offerings close to <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis internet</a>  $2 trillion – almost four times last year’s supply. Prior to 2009, it was enough to count on the recycling of <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">levitra costs</a>  the U.S. trade/ current account deficit to fund Treasury borrowing requirements. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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		<title>Marc Faber an Optimist?</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/04/marc-faber-an-optimist/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/04/marc-faber-an-optimist/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 13:56:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/04/marc-faber-an-optimist/</guid>
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		<title>Soros: Obama &quot;Lost a Great Opportunity&quot; to Fix the Banks</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/04/soros-obama-lost-a-great-opportunity-to-fix-the-banks/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/04/soros-obama-lost-a-great-opportunity-to-fix-the-banks/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:52:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Restructuring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/04/soros-obama-lost-a-great-opportunity-to-fix-the-banks/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tech Ticker has posted a series of video interviews with George Soros, a fabulously successful speculator and a big investor in liberal/ progressive causes around the world. neutrogena healthy skin anti-wrinkle cream spf 15 One in this wide-ranging, very worthwhile series deals with the Administration&#8217;s handling of the banking crisis: George Soros was an early [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px" height="228" alt="image" src="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/image4.png" width="244" align="right" border="0" /> Tech Ticker has posted a series of video interviews with George Soros, a fabulously successful speculator and a big investor in liberal/ progressive causes around the world. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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</ul>
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		<title>Fed unleashes greatest bubble of all: John Kemp, Reuters</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/03/fed-unleashes-greatest-bubble-of-all-john-kemp-reuters/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/03/fed-unleashes-greatest-bubble-of-all-john-kemp-reuters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:36:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/03/fed-unleashes-greatest-bubble-of-all-john-kemp-reuters/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[ Note: the following article is now 3-1/2 months old. The concerns it raise are as relevant and timely now as they were then. buy doxycycline without prescription Federal Reserve debt projections have increased significantly since then.] Reuters Wed Dec acomplia cheap 17, 2008 7:08am EST&#160; &#8212; John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[ Note: the following article is now 3-1/2 months old. The concerns it raise  are as relevant and timely now as they were then. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<h3>Reuters</h3>
<p>Wed Dec <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">acomplia cheap</a>  17, 2008 7:08am EST&#160; &#8212; John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own &#8212; </p>
<p><font size="4"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE4BG3C920081217?sp=true">Fed unleashes greatest bubble of all</a></strong></font> </p>
<p>By John Kemp </p>
<p>Like the sorcerer&#8217;s apprentice, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his predecessor Alan Greenspan have unleashed a series of ever-larger asset bubbles they cannot control. </p>
<p><a href="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/image25.png"><img style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0px 15px; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px" height="170" alt="image" src="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/image-thumb17.png" width="277" align="right" border="0" <a href="http://mm-project.com/images/">buy genuine viagra online</a>  <a <a href="http://igot-rippedoff.com/images/">buy generic viagra professional | buy cialis pharmacy | cheap levitra generic</a>  href=&#8221;http://ampicillin-pills.net&#8221;>buy ampicil in  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->in the longer-dated Treasury market risks the biggest bubble of all, this time in the U.S. government debt. </p>
<p>THE ASYMMETRIC EXPERIMENT </p>
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<p>Led by Bernanke and Greenspan, officials have argued it is too hard and subjective <a href="http://levitra-online-price.com">generic levitra</a>  to identify bubbles until afterwards, and not the Fed&#8217;s job to second-guess asset allocation decisions of professional investors. <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis</a>  </p>
<p>Even if bubbles could be identified, they argue, <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis pills</a>  pricking them would require swinging rate rises that would inflict widespread damage on the rest of the economy. </p>
<p>Far less damaging to allow asset markets to follow their natural cycle and stand by to cut interest rates sharply, supply liquidity and contain <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">online pharmacy</a>  the fallout when the bubble bursts. </p>
<p>But the Fed&#8217;s asymmetric policy response to rising and falling asset prices (colloquially known as the &quot;Greenspan/Bernanke <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy online amoxil</a>  put&quot;) directly led to much of the excessive risk-taking which has humbled the financial system <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">buy diflucan</a>  over the last eighteen months. </p>
<p>More <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Viagra Jelly">Viagra Jelly</a>  importantly, the Fed&#8217;s decision to respond to the collapse of the technology and stock market bubble by lowering rates to 1 percent and holding them there for an <a href="http://online-pills-med.net/buy/prednisone.html">Buy Prednisone Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  extended period is now widely accepted as a mistake that contributed to the bond bubble and subsequent housing market boom in the middle of the decade. </p>
<p>If the low-rate strategy was a mistake, it was a conscious one. In testimony to the UK Parliament last year, former Bank of England Governor Eddie George admitted the bank had deliberately sought to stimulate the housing market and house prices to support consumption during the downturn. Greenspan, Bernanke and Co seem to have adopted a similar approach in the United States. </p>
<p>The real mistake, however, was not creating one bubble <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/">Viagra online</a>  to offset the collapse of another, but believing they <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">viagra prices</a>  could control what they had wrought. </p>
<p>When the Fed did eventually start to raise short-term interest rates <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">propecia</a>  in 2004, long rates remained stubbornly low for a year, and then rose much more slowly than anticipated, a development the puzzled Fed chairman and his able assistant Dr Bernanke described as &quot;the Great Conundrum.&quot; </p>
<p>Even as rates eventually rose, the alchemy of securitization ensured the real cost of credit remained far too low until the <a href="http://cialisbuysale.com">Order Generic Cialis Online without Prescription</a>  subprime bubble finally burst in late 2007. </p>
<p>The second mistake is a basic design flaw in the Fed&#8217;s &quot;risk-management&quot; approach  to setting  monetary policy. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The Fed has struggled to formulate a response to &quot;low probability, high impact&quot; events such as the threat of deflation in the early 2000s. Its response has <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">buy cheap ampicillin</a>  been to cut rates aggressively to ward off the danger of extreme downside events, a strategy officials liken to taking out an insurance policy. </p>
<p>That&#8217;s fine, but when these low risk events have not in fact occurred, as was never statistically likely, <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Silagra">Silagra</a>  the resulting policy settings have proved far  too loose, and the central bank much  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->too slow to change it. </p>
<p>Concentrating on theoretical but small risks such as deflation has too often blinded the Fed <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">amoxil online</a>  to much larger risks near at hand of bubbles and asset inflation. </p>
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<p>INTO THE UNKNOWN </p>
<p>Even <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra</a>  as officials recognize policy has played a role stimulating an endless series of bubbles, the Fed finds itself trapped with no way out. Following the collapse of much of the modern banking system, the risk of pernicious deflation is now very real&#8211;more so than in the early 2000s. </p>
<p>So like the sorcerer&#8217;s <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand generic</a>  apprentice, the Fed has cranked up the Great Bubble Machine for what policymakers hope will be one final time. </p>
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<p>The Fed&#8217;s &quot;unconventional&quot; monetary strategy comes in four parts: </p>
<p>(1) Cutting interest  rates to near-zero to lower the cost of borrowing. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>(2) Injecting short-term liquidity into the financial system in the form of bank reserves (quantitative easing). </p>
<p>(3) Trying to pull down yields on longer-dated Treasury bonds through a combination of the jawbone (promising to keep short rates low  for an extended period) <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>(4) Trying to reduce credit spreads above the Treasury yield for other borrowers, and increase the quantity of credit available, by buying mortgage-backed agency bonds for its own account, and financing other market participants to buy securities backed by other <a href="http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/consumercredit">consumer credit</a>s, auto  loans and student  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> But the real significance lies in the unconventional operations targeting Treasury yields and eventually credit spreads at the long end. </p>
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<p>ONE LAST SUPER-BUBBLE </p>
<p>The strategy has already succeeded in halving yields from over 4 percent in mid October to just <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy real viagra without prescription | buy cialis fast shipping | low price levitra</a>  2.25 percent now. </p>
<p>By convincing investors interest rates will remain ultra low for a long period, the Fed has made them willing to <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">buy cytotec online</a> <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil</a>  <a href="http://e-viagraonline.com/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://camagracheap.net">Order Kamagra</a>  Jelly&#8221;>Viagra Jelly</a>   lend to the U.S. government for up to ten <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">nolvadex buy</a>  years for what is a paltry return. </p>
<p>There are two risks. First, the massive rise in bond prices and compression of yields has come in the secondary <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buyviagra | buy cialis overseas | buy levitra drugs</a>  market. The U.S. Treasury has not yet succeeded in placing much of its massively expanded debt and new requirements for next year at such <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Brand Levitra">Brand Levitra</a>  low levels. But given the panic-driven demand for default-free assets, officials should not have too much difficulty. </p>
<p>The <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra <a href="http://jobs-recruitment.info/images/">purchase viagra | buy cialis generic online | levitra buying</a>  online discount </a>  bigger one is that the Fed is misleading investors into the biggest bubble of all time. Bernanke is making what learned economists call a &quot;time-inconsistent&quot; <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online drugstore</a>  promise to hold interest rates at ultra low levels for an extended period. </p>
<p>The problem is that if the unconventional monetary policy works, and the economy picks up, the Fed will come under pressure to &quot;normalize&quot; rates and reduce excess liquidity <a href="http://getrxpills.com/">medicine <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Cialis Professional">Cialis Professional</a>  online without prescription</a>  to prevent a rise in inflation. The resulting rate rises will inflict massive losses on anyone who bought bonds at today 2.25 percent rate. </p>
<p>Bizarrely, Bernanke and Co are in fact <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">tadalafil</a>  inviting investors to bet the policy will fail, the economy will remain mired in slump for a long period, deflation will occur and interest rates will remain on the floor, as Japan&#8217;s have <a href="http://spropecia-online.net">online <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-antibiotics-pills.html">Buy <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">amoxil online</a>  Antibiotics medications</a>  propecia</a>  done since the 1990s. </p>
<p>Buyers <a href="http://www.score-louisville.org/component/page,shop.product_details/flypage,flypage.tpl/product_id,46/category_id,6/option,com_virtuemart/Itemid,37/vmcchk,1/">cialis <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">levitra costs</a>  no prescription</a>  of <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.com">amoxicillin</a>  real estate and subprime securities have recently been lampooned for foolishly overpaying at the top <a href="http://dcialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Cialis Jelly">Cialis Jelly</a>  of the market. Bernanke and Co are gambling memories will prove short and investors will prove just as eager to pay top prices for long-term government and private debt even though the downside is large. </p>
<p>Let us have one last bubble, and when it collapses, we promise not to do any more in future&#8230;honest. </p>
<p>&#169; Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved</p>
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		<title>Deflation or Inflation?</title>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 22:21:24 +0000</pubDate>
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				<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/03/deflation-or-inflation/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is an introduction to following posts on current government policies and their effects 30mg cialis on future outlook for inflation versus deflation. &#34;Why should I care?&#34; would be cialis online an understandable response to this topic. Inflation/deflation buy viagra online discount &#124; buy cialis cialis &#124; buy levitra online cheap seems pretty far removed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is an introduction to following posts on current government policies and their  effects <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Why, you may wonder, is deflation such a bad thing? I have wondered the same thing myself. The underlying reason, it turns out, is the same reason that we are having a financial/  economic crisis &#8212; the huge over-expansion of debt. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>If deflation sets in, it makes outstanding debt burdens more onerous, and it also discourages taking on <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Kamagra Gold">Kamagra Gold</a>  new debt for <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand online</a>  investment because the deflation effectively <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">generic levaquin</a>  raises the interest rate. <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">generic <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-erectile-dysfunction-pills.html">Buy <a href="http://loanscreditandinsurance.info/images/index.php">buy cialis brand</a>  Erectile <a href="http://amoxilpills.net">buy amoxil</a>  Dysfunction medications</a>  propecia</a>  The Federal Reserve can&#8217;t lower interest rates below zero; so monetary policy is <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Tadacip">Tadacip</a>  limited in its scope. Less investment will contribute to pushing the economy downward, which can then contribute to further deflation &#8212; and so on.</p>
<p>Mr. Bernanke believes that the deflation cycle was one of the major contributors to making the 1930&#8242;s depression <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">cheap amoxil online</a>  so severe, explaining why he is so dedicated to <a href="http://cialis-online-price.net">buy cialis now</a>   preventing  its recurrence. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Bernanke is right or that he will achieve his goal of preventing <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>  deflation. Perhaps an even larger number believe that even if he is able to prevent deflation, <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  he is doing so only at the cost of creating an <em>unavoidable</em> much larger  inflation in the future. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Mr. Bernanke answers such critics by saying that when the time comes, when the economy begins to expand, he will &quot;mop up&quot; all of the excess <a href="http://aviagraforsale.net/item.php?name=Levitra Professional">Levitra Professional</a>  money in <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">buy amoxil</a>  the system so that inflation won&#8217;t occur.</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> Whether bond prices will rise or fall in the future is a key question for all of those who now own the $6 trillion <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cytotec</a> <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online cheap ampicillin</a>   nolvadex</a>  of publicly held U.S. debt. </p>
<p>As The Federal Reserve&#8217;s policies are official policy, they receive a great deal of media coverage of the rationale <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">online ampicillin</a>  for them. Less coverage is provided to opposing views.  I, therefore, concentrate on providing space for opposing, and to me very credible, critiques. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The first one in the series is from Reuters&#8217; columnist John Kemp on the inherent contradiction of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s current efforts to push down and keep down long-term government bond interest rates.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://roylat.com/2009/03/deflation-or-inflation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
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		<title>Obama Redeems Himself</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/03/obama-redeems-himself/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/03/obama-redeems-himself/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 00:55:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Power]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Default Swaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Restructuring]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wall Street]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/03/obama-redeems-himself/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a recent post Cialis online on the latest bank bailout plan, I took President Obama to task for not using the opportunity afforded by the dire financial straits of the banks to reduce their political and economic influence. buy levitra online cheap I said, [I hoped that] Obama would bring a fresh perspective to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a <a href="http://roylat.com/2009/03/wall-street-wins-we-lose-obama-fails/" target="_blank">recent post <a href="http://mlmsuccessformula.com/images/">Cialis online</a>  on the latest bank bailout plan</a>, I took President Obama to task for not using the opportunity afforded by the dire financial straits of the banks to reduce their political and economic influence. <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy levitra online cheap</a>  I said, </p>
<blockquote><p>[I hoped that] Obama would bring a fresh perspective to managing our economy, one that would provide for rebalancing the economy as well as the distribution of income. It is not just who get the money (although this needs to change), but what as a nation <a href="http://americanlandowners.com/images/">buy cialis fast shipping </a>   we choose to produce  and consume. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4883166n"><img style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; margin: <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online Viagra buy</a>  <a href="http://softviagraonline.com">brand viagra</a>  0px 0px 0px 10px; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: <a href="http://amoxil-pills.net">buy cheap amoxicillin</a>  0px&#8221; height=&#8221;160&#8243; <a href="http://bikerchickz.ws/images/">Buy  Cialis online</a>  alt=&#8221;image&#8221; src=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/image23.png&#8221; width=&#8221;244&#8243; align=&#8221;right&#8221; border=&#8221;0&#8243; /></a>Since writing this, I watched Obama on the <a href="http://www.nbc.com/The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno/video/clips/president-obama-319/1067541/" <a href="http://viagra-online-price.net">viagra <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online buy Ampicillin</a>  online sale</a>  target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;>Jay <a href="http://onlinepharmacy-drugs.net/buy/plavix.html">Buy Plavix Online Pharmacy No Prescription Needed</a>  Leno Show</a> and on <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4883166n">60 Minutes</a>. If you haven&#8217;t watched these, and have the time to spare, both of these provided very worthwhile insights into Obama&#8217;s  understanding and approach toward addressing the financial economic plight. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>What stood out for me were the following:</p>
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<p>Obama stated very directly that the bloated <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">where to buy cialis</a>  financial sector size and profits are not good for America.   </p>
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<p>He specifically mentioned that the financial sector didn&#8217;t produce <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">generic levitra <a href="http://femaleviagrabuysale.com">Buy Female Viagra </a>  price</a>  &quot;real&quot; <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.com">ampicillin buy</a>  goods that people need, such as housing, <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Tadalis <a href="http://exotic-gift.info/images/index.php">buy cialis we</a>  <a href="http://marvabrooks.com/images/">where can i buy cialis</a>  SX&#8221;>Tadalis SX</a>  automobiles, etc., and that we need to rebalance the economy away from the financial sector.</p>
<p>Obama&#8217;s understanding of the situation and his statement of values about what counts were reassuring. Though I still have issues <a href="http://cytotecbuyonline.com">cytotec asthma</a>  with the latest bailout plan, I am more optimistic that he will address the problems of the disproportionate influence of the financial sector,  and that he will work to move our economy toward types of production that will be to the long-term benefit of the people. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Hedge Funds Betting on Housing Collapse May Get AIG Cash</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/03/hedge-funds-betting-on-housing-collapse-may-get-aig-cash/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/03/hedge-funds-betting-on-housing-collapse-may-get-aig-cash/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 15:29:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Credit Default Swaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Default]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Housing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgages]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/03/hedge-funds-betting-on-housing-collapse-may-get-aig-cash/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Wall Street Journal 30mg cialis has an article that describes in some detail how hedge funds and Goldman Sachs bet on the collapse how to buy drugs in the US housing market using hundreds of billions of dollars of credit default swaps, swaps that eventually were bought by AIG for pennies per year. In [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Wall Street  Journal  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->in the US housing market using hundreds of billions of dollars of credit default swaps, swaps that eventually were bought by AIG for pennies per year. In the event, when the housing market collapsed, AIG was left holding the bag, and the government has decided to transfer the bag to us taxpayers. </p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> For those that can follow it, it provides a fascinating education on how these supposedly sophisticated organizations badly mispriced risk, and how other predatory financial concerns took advantage to reap billions in profits (which would not be realized if the government had not stepped in with taxpayer money to make the bets good). </p>
<p>I can see no public justification for making whole gigantic gambles on the failure of the U.S. economy. When gamblers are dealing with gamblers, <em>caveat <a href="http://onlineacompliacheap.net">acomplia</a> <a href="http://viagra-online-price.com">buy viagra</a>   emptor</em>  should certainly apply. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Here is the article in full. It is worth trying to work your way through it.</p>
<blockquote><h3><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123734123180365061.html?mod=djemalertNEWS#articleTabs%3Darticle">Hedge Funds May Get AIG Cash</a> </h3>
<h4>Some Bailout Money Is Set Aside to Pay Firms That <a href="http://buynolvadexcheap.com ">buy nolvadex</a>  Bet Housing Market Would Crater</h4>
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<p>Some of the billions of dollars that the U.S. government paid to bail out <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&amp;symbol=aig">American International Group</a> Inc. stand to benefit hedge funds that bet on a falling housing market, according to people  familiar with the  matter  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<p>The documents show how Wall Street banks were middlemen in trades with hedge funds <a href="http://spropecia-online.com">propecia</a>  and AIG that left the giant insurer holding the bag on billions of dollars of assets tied to souring mortgages. AIG has put in escrow some money for at least one major bank, <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&amp;symbol=db">Deutsche Bank</a> AG, whose hedge-fund clients made bets against the housing market, according to a person familiar with the matter. The money will be released to the bank if mortgage defaults rise  above a certain level. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>In essence, while the U.S. government is busy trying to prop up the housing market &#8212; by trying to limit foreclosures, among other things &#8212; it is simultaneously putting up cash that could be used to pay off investors who bet housing prices would tumble and many mortgage holders would default.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s unclear how much government money might eventually flow to hedge-fund investors. Overall, the government has committed up to $173.3 billion to bail out AIG. Of that amount, AIG&#8217;s housing-related bets have cost U.S. taxpayers some $52 billion. </p>
<p><a <a href="http://levitra-brand.net">levitra brand 20 mg</a> <a href="http://americanlandowner.com/images/">buy levitra drugs</a>   href=&#8221;http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/image15.png&#8221;><img style="border-right: 0px; border-top: 0px; margin: 0px 15px 0px 5px; border-left: 0px; border-bottom: 0px" height="197" alt="image" src="http://roylat.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/image-thumb11.png" width="295" align="left" border="0" /></a>The investment strategies involved are perfectly legal maneuvers. Still, the losses show how AIG strayed from its core business: selling standard   insurance  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->policies to businesses and individuals to protect against everything from fires to lawsuits. &quot;AIG&#8217;s financial-products division went heavily into the business of speculation, and its gambling debts are what taxpayers are paying off right now,&quot; said Martin Weiss of Weiss Research, <a href="http://exotic-gift.info/images/index.php">buy viagra in las vegas | buy cialis we | buy levitra cheap online</a>  an investment consultant in Jupiter, Fla.</p>
<p>&#160;<cite>European Pressphoto Agency</cite></p>
<p>An AIG spokeswoman declined to comment, as did a spokesman for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.</p>
<p>The transactions worked like this: Investment <a <a href="http://onenetcenter.com/images/">buy levitra vardenafil</a>  href=&#8221;http://amoxilpills.net&#8221;>generic amoxil</a>  banks such as <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&amp;symbol=GS">Goldman <a href="http://beautifulsummermorning.com/images/">Online buy Viagra</a>  <a href="http://levitra-online-price.net">generic levitra price</a>  Sachs Group</a> Inc. and Deutsche Bank sold financial instruments to hedge funds letting them bet that mortgage defaults would rise. These instruments were credit default swaps, a form of insurance that pays out in the event of a debt default.</p>
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> However, several large funds made big, ultimately profitable, wagers that mortgage defaults would increase.</p>
<p>Many of the assets AIG insured were tied to subprime mortgages. The deterioration of those <a href="http://acialisforsale.net/item.php?name=Viagra <a href="http://amoxilcheap.net">amoxil online</a>  Professional&#8221;>Viagra Professional</a>  high-risk mortgages, along with AIG&#8217;s own financial woes, forced the insurer <a href="http://femaleviagrabuysale.com">Buy cheap Female Viagra Online </a>  to put up billions of dollars in collateral, mostly to the banks that were its trading partners. AIG sold protection on securities backed by physical  assets,  <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ -->as well as on positions almost entirely backed by other financial bets.</p>
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<p>The transactions meant that AIG was wagering that the U.S. housing <a href="http://amoxilpharm.com">amoxil online</a>  market would remain robust. With housing markets now in free fall, the hedge  funds stand to collect money from their bank counterparties. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>The banks that had sold credit default swaps to the hedge funds wanted to turn around and hedge their own risks. But finding that protection wasn&#8217;t easy.</p>
<h5>So at Deutsche, the German bank&#8217;s securities arm  created a handful of offshore companies known as  collateralized debt  obligations, or CDOs. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> These companies carried a series of exotic names, according to securities filings, mostly based around the moniker &quot;START,&quot; short for STAtic ResidenTial CDO. They allowed Deutsche to neutralize its exposure to the hedge funds&#8217; bets by buying swaps from START on the same securities its clients <a href="http://acialisforsale.com/item.php?name=Tadalis SX">Tadalis SX</a>   were betting against. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>START held assets from <a href="http://viagrabrand.net/buy-erectile-dysfunction-pills.html">Buy Erectile Dysfunction medications</a>  a hit parade of lenders closely linked to the subprime crisis, <a href="http://amoxil-cheap.net">buy amoxicillin online</a>  including Bear Stearns, Countrywide Financial and <a href="http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&amp;symbol=NEW">New Century Financial</a>, according to documents reviewed by the Journal.</p>
<p>In 2005, Deutsche found a willing taker for a chunk of the mortgage risks held by START: AIG Financial Products. The derivatives arm of AIG agreed to pay out up to $1 billion under two of the START <a href="http://seeavision.com/images/">where can buy viagra | buy cialis pills | levitra online</a>  vehicles, if underlying assets deteriorated or the insurer&#8217;s own credit rating fell below a certain threshold. AIG stood to earn a fraction of a penny each year for every dollar of protection it sold, according to securities filings, meaning it made less than $10 million annually on the $1 billion in insurance.</p>
<p>Up until AIG exited the market in 2006, &quot;AIG was by far the single largest ultimate taker of risk in the [subprime mortgage] CDO space,&quot; says <a href="http://mm-project.com/images/">buy levitra cheap online</a>  a  senior investment banker whose firm bought credit protection from the insurer. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p>Last fall, after AIG&#8217;s credit rating was cut, the insurer paid roughly $800 million to START, according to two people familiar <a href="http://m.onlinemarketing4all.mm-project.com/images/">viagra sale</a>  with the <a href="http://cialis-online-price.com">buy cialis online</a>  matter. <a href="http://bestaffiliatelandmines.com/images/">buy viagra online discount | buy cialis cialis | buy levitra online cheap</a>  Much of the money is being held in escrow and will be used to pay off Deutsche&#8217;s swap contracts if mortgage defaults <a href="http://share-video.info/images/">order online levitra</a>  <a href="http://e-viagraonline.net/item.php?name=Kamagra jelly">Kamagra jelly</a>  in the portfolio rise above a certain level. Some of that money could go through Deutsche to its hedge-fund clients.</p>
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<p>Click to See Full Chart</p>
<p>If the housing market improves, AIG could recover some or much of the cash it transferred to START. But that outcome won&#8217;t be known for years. The portions of START to which AIG is exposed were originally rated triple-A by Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s. They&#8217;ve since been downgraded to &quot;junk&quot; status by the ratings firm.</p>
<p>The START CDOs share <a href="http://getrxpills.com/">cheap pills</a>  some similarities with mortgage pools created by Goldman named &quot;Abacus&quot; and also insured by AIG Financial Products, <a href="http://ampicillin-pills.net">ampicillin buy</a>  according to people familiar <a href="http://aviagraforsale.com/item.php?name=Levitra">Levitra</a>  with the matter.</p>
<p>These pools were made up of credit-default swaps tied to  individual mortgage securities. <!-- ~~sponsor~~ -->
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<p><!-- ~~sponsored~~ --> AIG had to post collateral to Goldman when the assets dropped in value. Some of this money, too, could go to hedge-fund clients of Goldman.</p>
<p>From mid-September to the end of last year, AIG and the government paid $5.4 billion to Deutsche and <a href="http://camagracheap.net">online kamagra</a>  $8.1 billion <a href="http://buylevaquincheap.com">levaquin antibiotic</a>  to Goldman under credit default swap contracts the insurer had written.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://ampicillinpills.net">online cheap ampicillin</a>  spokesman for the German bank said, &quot;Our exposure to AIG was well-collateralized and hedged.&quot; A Goldman spokesman also said his firm&#8217;s exposure was collateralized and hedged.</p>
<p><strong>Write to </strong>Serena Ng at <a href="mailto:serena.ng@wsj.com">serena.ng@wsj.com</a></p>
<p><cite>Printed <a href="http://buydiflucancheap.com">diflucan buy online</a>  in The Wall Street Journal, page A1</cite></p>
<p>Copyright 2008 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved</p>
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]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Recent Rates of Return versus Risk</title>
		<link>http://roylat.com/2009/03/recent-rates-of-return-versus-risk/</link>
		<comments>http://roylat.com/2009/03/recent-rates-of-return-versus-risk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 Mar 2009 15:41:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>roylat</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://roylat.com/2009/03/recent-rates-of-return-versus-risk/</guid>
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